Outgoing climate official: We may not have enough renewable energy by 2030

Estonia may fall short of the target set in law that the country must produce as much renewable energy as it consumes, Keit Kasemets said on his last day in office as secretary general of the Ministry of Climate.
In an appearance on Vikerraadio's "Uudis+" on Friday, Kasemets said that energy policy decisions over the past couple of years have been based on the renewable energy target for 2030 written into law in 2022.
This was also the case for the energy policy deal struck Monday by the leaders of Estonia's ruling three coalition parties, according to which the state will start subsidizing wind farms.
However, achieving Estonia's 2030 target will depend on the country's solar and onshore wind farms, as planned offshore wind farms won't be completed any earlier than 2033 and a potential nuclear power plant until between 2035-2040, he estimated.
Asked whether the 2030 target could be met without these offshore wind farms, Kasemets replied that it depends on what consumption forecasts are used. Monday's energy deal was based on transmission system operator (TSO) Elering's forecast, which estimates Estonia's electricity consumption will be from 10-11 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2030.
"If we go by Elering's forecast, today's figures still indicate that reverse auctions [organized by the state] alone are not enough," the secretary general said. "Some renewable energy, both solar and onshore wind farms, would still have to enter the market unsubsidized, or covered by later reverse auctions."
Based on his own calculations, Estonia would produce 7-8 TWh of renewable electricity annually by 2030.
When host Arp Müller pointed out that this means Estonia might not produce enough renewable energy to fully cover its own consumption by the year 2030, Kasemets replied, "It might not."
Asked whether he had conveyed as much to coalition politicians, who have not brought up abandoning this target, Kasemets confirmed that this issue has been discussed and figures reviewed in the government cabinet.
"Let's say this is a separate issue to discuss," he said. "We still see at the ministry that quite a few smaller [production] capacities will still come online even without subsidies. We still have quite a few years until 2030, so the way we currently see things is that we'll carry out these reverse auctions first, and then evaluate the results and decide on the next steps accordingly."

Wind farm developers Enefit Green and Utilitas Wind told ERR this week that they believe the 2030 target is rather optimistic, considering the fact that the development of onshore wind farms is being delayed by dragging planning processes as well as opposition by locals.
In an appearance on ETV's "Esimene stuudio" on Thursday, opposition party Isamaa chair Urmas Reinsalu said that Estonia's 2030 renewable energy target needs to be adjusted because it's both unrealistic and unnecessary.
Meanwhile, Climate Ministry deputy secretary general Jaanus Uiga argued on "Uudis+" that this target can be met if serious effort is put into wind farm development plan processes and the promised reverse auctions are conducted as planned.
Planned volumes reduced
This Monday, the chairs of the coalition Reform Party, Eesti 200 and Social Democratic Party (SDE) reached a deal which included the decision to organize reverse auctions for 2 terawatt-hours (TWh) of production each for offshore and onshore wind farms — or 2 TWh less than last year's plan for both off- and onshore wind farms.
When Kasemets took office as secretary general of the Ministry of Climate, the state's position at the time was that sufficient wind farms would be built even without state support. Plans were subsequently made to subsidize up to 6 TWh of wind energy, which at one point increased to a total of 8 TWh — or 4 TWh each for onshore and offshore wind farms — before now being reduced to a 2+2 plan.
"What changed was that at one point there was a lot more optimism about how quickly new consumption and clean industry might arrive in Estonia," the outgoing official recalled.
"Enterprise Estonia had drawn up a very ambitious forecast that all these factories would be coming to Estonia, and we adjusted energy plans based on their consumption projections," he continued. "In recent months now, the government cabinet has very thoroughly discussed various impacts as well as consumption forecasts, and I think the decision made is a very realistic and grounded one. The government decided to reduce the volumes [of reverse auctions], to start with smaller volumes first, and then later assess the results of these reverse auctions and make further decisions if necessary."
Keit Kasemets has served as secretary general of the Ministry of Climate since June 2023.
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Editor: Marko Tooming, Aili Vahtla