Dear Riigikogu, diplomatic corps, guests,

An air of the late 1930s can be felt around the world. The rules-based world order is under increasing pressure. Autocracies are gathering strength and converging. Attempts are being made to drive wedges into democratic societies and between democracies, to amplify existing contradictions and to undermine values.

In light of this, the democratic world must ask itself – will we allow the threats to grow until it is too late, as was done then, or will we resolutely take a stand to defend our values.

It was only recently that many European leaders said they should have listened to the Baltic States when we warned about the growing threat of aggression in the east. Today we say: listen to us now as well. Our freedom is at stake; keeping it requires victory in Ukraine, containing the aggressive Russia for a long time, strengthening our alliances and a more confident Europe.

Estonia's foreign policy is guided by the long-term strategy "Estonia 2035" that aims for a secure, high-quality society and safe state.

Dear audience,

The international order guaranteeing the independence of Estonia is under direct attack in Ukraine, where the outcome of the war will determine Europe's security for decades to come – whether changing borders by the force of arms is possible, whether aggression pays off, and whether relations between states are governed by commonly agreed law or by brute force. These are issues of existential importance for Estonia.

Putin has not changed his goals – he still wants both the subjugation of the whole of Ukraine and a fundamental restructuring of European security. He has led Russia into a dead end and the time for getting out of there is running out for him; none of his original strategic goals have been achieved. This is why Putin's attempts to divert the West from its pro-Ukraine course are increasingly desperate. He hopes that what he has failed to achieve by military force he will secure at the negotiating table. We must not fall into this trap!

No one wants peace more than the Ukrainians. Of course, Estonia wants it too. But we know that there is a difference between peace and peace. The peace agreed at Yalta did not bring justice to the Baltic nations; the promises of the Munich Agreement did not stand. The peace that comes at the end of this war must be just and lasting.

A just peace is based on international law, including the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty. Estonia does not recognize the changing of borders by force of arms, nor the right of any state to restrict the freedom of another to choose its allies. A just peace also means that crimes are punished and damages are compensated. We will not let the world forget that Putin is wanted for war crimes. We must continue to fight for the return of the children deported from Ukraine to their families and work to ensure that the international community agrees on the statute for a Special Tribunal on the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine before the end of the year.

The security, economic sustainability and political stability of Ukraine must be ensured if peace is to be maintained. There is no better guarantee of security in Europe than NATO's collective defense, and no more secure way of ensuring a country's political stability and economic development than membership of the European Union. These two support each other – without security there is no stability and prosperity, without stability and prosperity there is no security. Both NATO and the European Union have publicly stated that they want to see Ukraine as a member in the future. Abandoning this objective, or turning it into a bargaining chip in negotiations, would also undermine our collective credibility on other issues. Therefore, Estonia will continue to contribute to the Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine, seeing that it also brings important benefits to NATO and the European Union themselves. A militarily capable, independent and democratic Ukraine that is integrated into the West is the best antidote to Russian imperialism and the solution to the real root cause of the war, which is Putin's failure to accept the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Ladies and gentlemen,

In recent months, the debate between the Allies on security guarantees for Ukraine has intensified. This debate is timely, because the guarantees that ensure the security of Ukraine must be implemented as soon as the battles stop, even if it takes time to achieve NATO membership; they must include a pledge to defend Ukraine in the event of a possible recurrence of aggression; and they must be backed up by real military capabilities. Ukraine's security is first and foremost a matter of European security. European countries must therefore be the ones that bear the main burden of these guarantees, but as in transatlantic security in general, US involvement is needed in security guarantees for Ukraine. Estonia is ready to discuss these guarantees with its Allies, to develop them jointly and to participate in their implementation.

Dear friends,

It is naïve to hope that peace can be achieved just by talking about it, or worse, by feeding the aggressor with the freedom of other nations. Peace can only come through strength. To this end, we must ensure a position of strength for Ukraine and prove that the West is not deviating from its course. Should U.S. aid decrease in some areas, Europe, with its more than 400 million residents, must be able to fill the necessary gaps itself.

Estonia is one of the biggest military supporters of Ukraine alongside the other Nordic and Baltic countries – our aid so far amounts to more than half a billion euros. We will contribute 0.25 percent of our GDP to military aid to Ukraine this year and call on our Allies to do the same. If all the Allies did this, the total military aid to Ukraine would reach €120 billion, which we believe is enough to push back the aggressor. I would also like to emphasize again that Estonia does not impose any restrictions on Ukraine in terms of the weapons we provide, and we call on others to do the same; we must not tie Ukraine's hands ourselves. It is also important that what has been promised to Ukraine is actually delivered, and fast. We have high hopes for the newly created Ukraine mission of NATO, which should ensure that everything promised will be delivered. We train Ukrainian soldiers alongside the United Kingdom. The European Union must also start contributing more to the training; Estonia proposes to increase the ambition level of the EUMAM mission so that 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers can be trained as soon as possible.

Estonia has also set an example in rebuilding Ukraine by implementing real reconstruction projects already – during the war – which, in addition to covering the needs of Ukraine, also comply with European Union rules and thus bring Ukraine closer to membership. Our aim is to bring other countries on board. This way, we have received and are about to receive support for our projects from Iceland, Belgium and Taiwan, totaling millions of euros. Two Estonian initiatives have been launched with even greater international support – the Tallinn Mechanism, which is gathering support to enhance the cybersecurity of the Ukrainian government, and the IT Coalition, which aims to increase Ukraine's military cyber capabilities. In both cases, the contribution of the countries involved by us is in the hundreds of millions of euros. Thus, everything we have invested in rebuilding Ukraine will yield a return for us many times over – in terms of security, reputation and opportunities for Estonian businesses.

Dear audience,

There has been too much caution and timidity in raising the price of aggression for Russia. It is not the aggressor's defeat we should fear – instead, we should fear the success of the aggression. Dangerous times call for more decisive action. To this end, the following steps are needed.

Firstly, go harder after Russia's main source of income – energy exports. Although the European Union has agreed to stop importing fossil fuels from Russia by 2027, imports of Russian liquefied natural gas increased last year. Therefore, Estonia reiterates its proposal to immediately and completely stop energy imports from Russia. Estonia did it, so can others.

Much of Russia's oil passes through the Gulf of Finland, creating all kinds of problems, but also providing additional opportunities for cutting Russia's revenues. Last year, on the initiative of Estonia, we agreed between the Nordic and Baltic countries and several others on how to contain the shadow fleet. All the companies that operate the vessels in the shadow fleet and the flag states that give them legitimacy must know that we will not miss any opportunity to make operating as costly as possible for the vessels carrying Russia's bloody oil.

Secondly, if the European Union cannot, for whatever reason, sanction some groups of goods, EU tariffs must be imposed on them. The European Commission has made its proposals, now we need to move fast and decide on the tariffs.

And thirdly, we want to kick-start the mobilization of the frozen assets belonging to the aggressor state. There are both moral and pragmatic considerations behind this. In the last two years, we have been among the countries leading this debate internationally, and last year we were the first country in Europe to set an example by adopting a precedent-setting law. Our pressure and our common sense have paid off – the decision to mobilize the windfall profits from assets has been taken by the G7 and the European Union; it will guarantee the financing of the aid package for Ukraine that exceeds €45 billion. Now, we must go all the way and reopen the debate on the mobilization of the assets themselves, which have been frozen to the tune of more than €200 billion in the European Union alone. Estonia is ready to lead the way and we hope that the new European Commission will join us.

Dear all,

Even if peace is achieved in Ukraine, Western policy towards Russia must not repeat the reset mistake. Russia will remain a threat to us for a long time, and NATO and the European Union need to shape their policies for containing Russia accordingly. The sanctions and international isolation of Russia must continue until Russia has stopped its aggression and compensated for the damage caused.

The restoration of relations with Russia requires the restoration of trust on its part. At present, Russia is violating all the international obligations it has assumed, including the NATO-Russia Founding Act, which died a long time ago because of Russia's actions.

An area to be assessed in the light of the trust destroyed by Russia is arms control and disarmament. The civilized world has imposed a number of constraints on itself here in the belief that Russia will behave accordingly. But Russia does not. That is why we, together with our Allies, are assessing whether or not the unilateral arms control and disarmament restrictions that apply to Estonia today are still appropriate.

We are giving particular attention to Russia's hybrid actions to influence democracies below NATO's Article 5 threshold through sabotage and influence, intimidation and election interference. Estonia has also felt the effects of such activities. The theft of border buoys by Russia and damaging the car of the minister of the interior are examples from real life. We follow six principles when resisting hybrid activities.

Firstly, we will not freeze or allow ourselves to be paralyzed by fear. Our reactions are well thought through and firm. A great example is the decision of Romania to annul the first round of the presidential elections after Russia had, using social medial platforms among other things, interfered in the elections. We need to be ready to react swiftly, both at home and in the European Union, to the influencing activities taking place on social media platforms. At the same time, new technologies – such as artificial intelligence – must be utilized for democracy.

Secondly, we are united with our Allies and coordinate our activities, as proven by the NATO operation Baltic Sentry in the Gulf of Finland.

Thirdly, we prosecute crimes in accordance with the rule of law, as we have always done, without sweeping anything under the carpet. Let this be confirmed by those who worked for the Russian special services and who today sit in Estonian detention facilities, convicted by our courts.

Fourthly, we will disclose cases and apportion blame as quickly as possible, avoiding premature conclusions that could undermine our credibility. In 2024, we attributed the cyber-attacks carried out in 2020 in full confidence to specific units and individuals of Russian military intelligence, who were also sanctioned at the EU Foreign Affairs Council in January. We had the leading role and did it all in cooperation with our Allies.

Fifthly, we will change our legal space and propose an improved application of international law, including maritime law, to ensure our security in both physical and cyberspace.

And sixthly, we will ensure that there is a price to pay for attacking us, but the time and place of that price will be of our choosing, and not necessarily symmetrical.

These six principles must be shaped into policies for both NATO and the European Union.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Through the functioning collective defense of NATO, we will ensure that Russia will not cross the border. The Allies have a military presence in the frontline countries and credible defense plans have been prepared, the Allies have approved the concept of forward defense sought by Estonia, according to which, in the event of an attack, we will immediately take defensive action on enemy territory. However, we must keep in mind that collective defense will never be completed. On the contrary, more serious planning and a more adequate threat assessment have confirmed the need for a greater military effort by the Allies. Inevitably, this also means the need for higher defense budgets.

Estonia is ready to increase its defense spending to 5 percent of GDP and already invests well over 3 percent in defense. At the summit in The Hague, Estonia proposed to its Allies to raise the minimum level of defense spending agreed by NATO to at least 3 percent of GDP. It is unfair that, on top of the already greater risk, border countries and the U.S. on the other side of the Atlantic have to pay a disproportionate financial share of the common defense responsibility. We can be sure that Donald Trump, the newly re-elected U.S. President, also wants the European Allies to share the burden more fairly.

Estonia has always been and will remain a country that values strong transatlantic relations. A close alliance is essential for both Europe and North America to successfully face the challenges of the 21st century. Disagreements between Allies – and they do occur – must be resolved without unnecessary fuss, in a mutually respectful manner and with due regard for each other's interests. Estonia is ready to join U.S. initiatives and even actively lead them, as we did in giving new life to the Three Seas Initiative or in ensuring the security of 5G technology. The U.S. can always be sure: we will not break our word and will always contribute – with advice and with force – above our weight.

In the context of intensified global competition, the issue of control over rare earth metals and other strategic mineral resources has come into focus. Estonia has a lot to offer here as well, which is why we as a society need to think through and discuss the issue of the smart use of our extensive phosphorite reserves as soon as possible.

The group of countries with which Estonia coordinates its international activities most closely are the Nordic and Baltic countries. We are pleased that the cooperation of the NB8 has become particularly strong recently. The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO has created an additional opportunity for a truly integrated regional security space. This requires us to deepen joint planning and intensify joint exercises. At the regional summit in Helsinki in January, it was recognized that the will for this exists. We plan to take these issues forward vigorously during our NB8 chairmanship in 2026. We must also take advantage of the formats that link the other Allies to our region – such as the JEF, led by the United Kingdom, which recently held a summit in Tallinn. The Council of the Baltic Sea States also offers good opportunities for promoting regional cooperation, allowing for deeper cooperation with Poland and Germany, which are important allies for the security and also the economy of our region. Holding the presidency of the Council of the Baltic Sea States this year, Estonia has initiated a process to strengthen the future role of this organization, led by President [Toomas Hendrik] Ilves and former Lithuanian Foreign Minister [Gabrielius] Landsbergis.

Dear audience,

The time when Europe could rely on others whilst naively doing business with tyrants is irrevocably over. Either the European Union will establish itself as a geopolitical actor, or we resign ourselves to Europe's silent demise. Just like staying in Europe has been the foreign policy goal of Estonia, the survival of Europe itself is also our goal. For this, we need a competitive, confident and geopolitical European Union.

The strength of the European Union requires the unity of Member States. Too often, however, we clash with one Member State's principled divergence on the most important issues: its attitude to Russian aggression and to democracy and the rule of law as such. A state that follows a different course from the rest of Europe needs to seriously consider whether it is in the right family.

A geopolitical Europe also needs a more assertive policy towards China. We should not be afraid of clearly defending our key interests; what we should be afraid of are dependencies, the avoidance of which is an essential prerequisite for our long-term security and economic interests. So far, we have treated China as a partner, competitor and rival. Now that China has become a decisive enabler of Russian aggression, it is clear to Estonia that the European Union's policy towards China needs to be reconsidered, placing more emphasis on China as a rival and competitor.

Defense capabilities must be increased in order to increase Europe's self-confidence. We want the European Union's increased activity in defense issues to complement NATO's collective defense and strengthen the relations with Allies outside the European Union. These are the principles we expect to be reflected in the white paper on the future of European defense, which is being prepared by High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Vice-President of the Commission Kallas and Commissioner for Defense Kubilius.

Defense capabilities will grow if we allocate more money for them also at EU level. This year, the Commission will present a new long-term budget proposal for the European Union. There, Estonia would like to see the confirmation of increased funding for defense, as well as for the creation of cross-border links within the EU, Ukraine and the forthcoming enlargement of the European Union. However, defense spending will have to be increased before the new budget will come into force in 2028. Before that issuing defense bonds needs to be seriously considered.

Only long-term defense funding will allow Europe's defense industry to develop – the harmonization of regulations can help, but the real investment will only come if the industry has reason to believe there will be orders in the future. However, the development of the defense industry is important from the perspective of our strategic independence, which is why we have made it our goal at both European and Estonian level.

Money – including money for the development of defense – does not grow on trees. The competitiveness of the European Union is not only a question of our welfare, but also of our security. A few days ago, the President of the Commission presented the EU Competitiveness Compass, based on the reports by Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta, which will significantly guide the European Union's actions over the next five years. Estonia is fully backing the initiatives proposed in the Compass, like the simplification of European law, reduction of red tape and of course digitalization.

Enlargement is one of the most powerful tools the European Union has at its disposal, which has benefited both the acceding countries and Europe as a whole. Therefore, Estonia's position is firm – enlargement must continue, and it must be conditional and based on the actual progress of the candidate countries. The right course of the candidate country in issues of democracy and rule of law as well as shared positions on foreign and security policy are crucial factors for Estonia.

The progress of Ukraine and Moldova in meeting the accession requirements is impressive, which is why we want the first round of negotiations – on the topics of rule of law and democracy – to be opened as early as March this year. Another goal of Estonia is to help Ukraine and Moldova start negotiations on other topics this year. It is also important to keep up the momentum of enlargement in the Western Balkans, where we want to highlight the full alignment of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro and North Macedonia with the European Union's foreign policy.

I would also like to praise Armenia, as Estonia strongly appreciates the reforms carried out there as well as the steps taken by the state to move closer to the European Union. We support all efforts to ensure stability in the South Caucasus, and we consider it particularly important that a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan is concluded as soon as possible.

Unfortunately, the enlargement of the European Union can also be reversed, as evidenced by the events in Georgia, where the ruling party is taking the country further away from democracy as well as from foreign policy that is oriented towards the West. It is clear that Georgia will not join the European Union on its present course and that the people de facto in power in Georgia have no democratic legitimacy. We have said that holding new elections is a way to emerge from this crisis and restore trust. If the authorities continue to use violence, we are ready to continue tightening sanctions, including revoking visa-free travel.

Dear Riigikogu,

The security and prosperity of Estonia require an active foreign policy whose footprint can no longer be limited to our immediate region or even to the whole of Europe. In order to protect our interests and stand up for our values, we need to tell our own story and look out for ourselves.

We have 45 foreign missions and almost 200 honorary consuls in 96 countries promoting our security and economic interests and assisting citizens. We opened 12 new honorary consulates in 2024 and are planning to open six more this year.

During the year, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs made high-level bilateral visits to 55 countries. In addition to these, there are the external relations of the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister, other ministers and, of course, the Riigikogu. Estonian entrepreneurs have been involved in the visits whenever possible and necessary.

Our multilateral diplomacy is equally intense. We are an active participant in UN reform discussions and are leading the way on many issues, such as limiting the use of veto rights. We will also continue protecting the core values that are important to Estonia: in 2025, we will lead the Freedom Online Coalition and, alongside Germany, the Media Freedom Coalition, and we will apply for a seat on the UN Human Rights Council in autumn.

From our close neighborhood to Africa, education and digital issues that give special weight to Estonia are at the heart of our development cooperation.

We have set ourselves the ambitious goal of doubling Estonian exports in the next 10 years. All Estonian diplomats and honorary consuls are working hard on this, helping to open doors and make contacts, both near and far. This year, we are planning more than 40 business-focused high-level visits and will organize hundreds of events at embassies to support Estonian businesses and attract investment to our country.

All this requires a professional foreign service and an appropriate network of foreign missions. The foreign service, which spends only about 0.3 percent of GDP, gives considerably more back to the society in terms of both security and economic growth.

Any cuts to foreign policy are out of the question at the moment and we need to be even more active instead. Based on this understanding, I will soon present proposals to the government on how to further strengthen the Estonian foreign service. I also count on the support of the parliament here.

Finally,

Speaking about global peace and security is not possible without discussing the situation in the Middle East. The recent ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, the significant weakening of Iran and the terrorist organizations it supports, as well as the prospect of a new beginning in Syria and the inauguration of the new authorities in Lebanon, offer hope for a better tomorrow, but efforts must be made by the countries of the region themselves and the international community as a whole to achieve this. Estonia has been consistent on the issues of the Middle East, supporting the alleviation of human suffering and the two-state solution based on international law.

Consistency will continue to be the trump card of our foreign policy.

Estonia has been right when warning about threats and calling for resolve.

We have been united in making our case abroad, even when we have had heated arguments at home.

We must keep this unity and integrity if we want to emerge from these difficult times unscathed and stronger as a country and a nation.

Thank you!

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