On Tuesday, EC President Ursula von der Leyen put forward an initiative to raise nearly €800 billion for defense. A significant portion of this funding is expected to come from member states themselves, and in return, the Commission will relax debt rules.

The minister spoke about the issue and other foreign policy matters on Vikerraadio on Wednesday.

Indrek Kiisler: Have we finally understood in Europe, and also in Estonia, that Donald Trump, a man of action, will see things through to the end? Ukraine and Russia are being pushed to the negotiating table, and Trump is willing to make incredible leaps to achieve this?

Margus Tsahkna: Are we certain about everything that will happen in the future concerning Trump? My answer is that we are not certain. Every morning brings something slightly different. Yesterday, in his speech to Congress, he made it very clear that Ukraine is ready to negotiate, and Russia is ready to negotiate.

Tuesday's news that Trump had halted military aid to Ukraine was more likely aimed at pressuring Ukraine. Similarly, there is now talk that a minerals agreement will likely be signed in the near future, probably next week.

Whether all of this will unfold exactly as expected is very difficult to say. The only one who truly wants peace as quickly as possible is Trump. But I think Putin will take advantage of the opportunity that Trump has opened these negotiations on all sorts of other topics as well. And that certainly does not paint a good picture.

Estonia is constantly being asked whether NATO's Article 5 applies or not. Former President Toomas Hendrik Ilves gave an interview to ERR radio news, in which he said that we are actually in a situation where we cannot rely on the U.S., and he questioned whether NATO holds any significance at all anymore.

I am absolutely convinced that Article 5 applies. We have been in contact with our American partners in the same way as before the conversation at the White House got out of hand. During the meeting with the president of Ukraine at the White House, the issue of the Baltic states was also raised, and President Trump stated very clearly that the Baltic states have a difficult neighbor and that he is committed to the Baltic states and likewise to NATO. So there is no reason for speculation here at all.

The truth is that we must do our part, and Europe must be capable of doing more on its own, but in the field of defense, this is already happening today.

Donald Trump's messages tend to shift. Why should we believe this assurance that he is committed to defending the Baltic states?

We must take it seriously because NATO exists. NATO has its agreements, and those agreements hold. And I think we do not need to constantly speculate about all possibilities.

As Estonia's foreign minister, I have no reason today to believe that Article 5 would not work. And let's be a bit realistic: if NATO were unable to respond to a Russian attack, it would significantly damage the position of the United States worldwide.

We must clearly maintain peace and focus on the matters that are within our power.

Speaking about rhetoric, on Tuesday morning, Estonian Member of the European Parliament Riho Terras (Isamaa) wrote on X that Donald Trump is a traitor...

I do not understand why there is a need to create panic. There are plenty of politicians in Estonia as well who are always waiting for a moment to come out with something sensational.

Of course, we must ask questions because we are dealing with Estonia's independence and highly existential issues. And I absolutely agree that we have not faced such a complicated time in security and foreign policy since 1938.

But I will repeat once again: Article 5 works. And I do call on Estonian politicians and key voices in public opinion to give clear messages and focus on what we can do.

The vast majority of the enormous sum proposed in the European Commission's defense initiative on Tuesday is expected to come from the member states themselves. But there is a catch: there are still several member states that do not see the need to increase defense spending, and they will not do so unless Donald Trump forces them. In Belgium and Spain, there is little concern over Russia's aggression.

In this regard, I really like President Trump. In a very brutal manner, he reminds Europe that we must invest in our own defense. The wishful thinking that someone else, such as the United States, will come and solve our problems is over. And Trump is very clear on this – if you do not contribute, neither will we. That is also a fairly honest position.

When we look at threats, it is not just Russia. Russia is the closest and most aggressive military threat to our region, but in reality, the entire southern flank also requires significantly increased defense capabilities.

But indeed, the risk in von der Leyen's proposals is that, in the end, defense costs will still fall on the member states themselves. In one sense, that is normal, Estonia does it, but it is not a fair distribution of the burden.

What Estonia has been advocating for years and will certainly emphasize again in this package is that Europe must share the defense burden collectively. Because inevitably, the so-called frontline states, which are defending NATO, which are defending Europe, end up paying more. We face the same dilemma with Europe that the United States does.

But it is complicated. I do not see any of these Southern European countries reaching 5 percent [allocating 5 percent of GDP on defense - ed.]. I hope they start aligning with the 3 percent threshold. At the NATO summit, we will also push for an average of 3.5 percent for all.

What is preventing the creation of a similar plan to the recovery package during the coronavirus crisis? Back then, an agreement was reached to inject nearly a trillion euros into the economy, why can't the same be done for defense? Are there differing opinions? For example, is Finland also against it?

During COVID, the European Union was able to decide on the use of €700 billion in just two weeks.

The problem is that this would have to be approved by all member states. And, for example, when talking to the Finns, for them, it ultimately turned out to be more costly, they ended up paying back more than they received. So this mechanism needs to be thoroughly negotiated.

Secondly, it may happen that not all 27 member states agree. As we can see, Hungary is already blocking initiatives related to supporting Ukraine.

We must now assess von der Leyen's proposal with the understanding that a single country should not be able to block the entire development of European security. Of course, there are procedures in place to eventually, I don't know, expel Hungary from the European Union or strip it of its voting rights. But that is not really the solution.

The problem lies in the agreements we have under the European treaties. This means that all national parliaments would have to approve it. And there, I see a very serious risk. So we need to find alternative solutions to address the issue of joint financing, and I believe we will find them.

What is the solution?

It is possible under the current European treaty to conduct so-called majority voting, to agree among member states on mechanisms for structuring joint financing in a way that ensures the broadest possible burden-sharing.

I just do not see a completely similar joint financing scheme as the COVID recovery plan happening. It simply will not pass in today's political climate, where some member states are absolutely not interested in it.

The key issue here is more of a legal question.

The last question is more optimistic. If Europe, under pressure from Trump, significantly increases defense spending, could we feel secure against Russia in five or six years?

I think that even today, we do not need to fear Russia militarily if NATO fully puts its capabilities on the table. In that sense, Estonians should remain calm.

But at the NATO summit in Vilnius, we adopted new defense plans for our region. These mean that we will not allow Russia onto our territory at all, for example. This is a different concept, which requires different capabilities.

Developing and ensuring these capabilities is now the primary goal. And in this light, I am optimistic. Europe is finally realizing that the Americans will not do all the work for us. This new understanding gives hope.

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