Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has now lasted three years. Ukrainians have heroically defended their homeland, with European countries, the United States and NATO providing support. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has taken the reins and now appears determined to reach a swift peace deal at any cost — regardless of the consequences for Ukraine and European nations. Alongside this shift, Europe seems to have come to the realization that it must take responsibility for its own defense.

"As of today, Europe does not have that capability. So now, European leaders are making desperate efforts to maintain the transatlantic alliance at any cost. At the same time, they must rapidly reduce Europe's dependence on the U.S., and the only way to do that is for Europe to become militarily stronger," said Kristi Raik, director of the International Centre for Defense and Security (ICDS).

"It is entirely possible for Europe to achieve this. Ukraine itself is much stronger today than it was three years ago, and I believe that in the future, Ukraine will play a crucial role in Europe's security architecture," she added.

"European politicians have somehow adopted the mindset that the U.S. is obligated to guarantee Europe's global deterrence indefinitely," noted security expert Rainer Saks.

The U.S. may issue threats, and halting military aid would undoubtedly be painful for Ukraine. "At some point, this will actually push the U.S. away from the process altogether," Saks said.

"I think one of the biggest questions is whether Trump's actions are simply about fulfilling an election promise or if they signal a completely new and distinctive direction for the United States in the future," said retired Maj. Gen. Neeme Väli.

For decades, the United States has spoken about defending a rules-based world order, but that is no longer the case — the focus has now shifted to great power competition and negotiations.

"There is an ongoing geopolitical struggle over who controls more territory, natural resources and influence. At the same time, deals between competitors are not out of the question. I don't think Russia and the U.S. will ever become allies, but they do want to restore relations and may even reach agreements if it serves both their interests," said Kristi Raik.

"The talking points they bring to the negotiating table are the same ones we heard in Putin's so-called ultimatum before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I don't believe that list of demands has changed in any way," said Neeme Väli.

Recent statements have made it clear that Europe must simultaneously support Ukraine and strengthen its own defense capabilities. A small country like Estonia has limited influence in this regard — or does it?

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) noted that American politics has become somewhat more erratic and media-driven, which he sees as a sign of the times. According to him, Estonia's role is to remind its allies from time to time about what is right and what is wrong.

"We know the facts here. The war in Ukraine would end immediately if Russia's troops stopped and if Putin decided to withdraw his forces from their killing spree. Likewise, the dictator is certainly not Ukraine's president — rather, it is Russia's president who is a dictator, leading his people to die on foreign soil," Michal stated.

Raik believes that Europe has spent too much energy trying to secure a seat at the negotiating table.

"It's not even clear which table we're talking about, what Europe's position would be or what Europe can contribute to achieving lasting peace in Ukraine. Right now, Europe must focus on becoming a serious player and continue supporting Ukraine," she said.

"The European Union includes various countries and not all of them are always invited to every discussion. Some don't make decisions as quickly. Today, we're talking about [Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor] Orbán as well. Different ad hoc formats emerge — sometimes overlapping with NATO, sometimes with the EU and sometimes beyond. There is a tendency to be overly dramatic and assume that if your friends meet without you, something bad must be happening. But they remain our friends, even if we are left out once in a while or if they believe a smaller group can move faster," Michal explained.

Raik dismissed the idea that Europe could become a bargaining chip in negotiations between Trump and Putin or that an alternative security arrangement could emerge. However, she acknowledged that Trump's approach to alliances differs from what we have been accustomed to.

"We can't be overly confident, but NATO still exists and so does the allied relationship. Europe cannot afford to do anything that would undermine it — that would simply be suicidal," Raik said.

Neeme Väli, who served in NATO from 2011 to 2018, including as deputy chief of staff at NATO's International Military Staff, believes the alliance will undergo some changes.

"NATO will likely adapt in some way, but that is nothing new — it has continuously evolved. These changes are entirely manageable within the organization. Today, as the U.S. role shifts, NATO will adjust. I don't see any serious interest in reducing, diminishing or dismantling NATO, nor in creating a replacement," Väli explained.

Can Europe influence the Trump administration's positions in any way?

"I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Trump might be willing to strike a deal with Putin. But I believe Europe must send a strong message to the U.S. that entering an agreement doomed to fail would be pointless. The risk of Europe being sidelined is very real when we look at today's geopolitical competition. If anyone can influence this, it will be the leaders of major European nations — hopefully in a way that aligns with Estonia's and Ukraine's interests," Raik commented.

"I don't think secret backroom deals and behind-the-scenes agreements are the Western way. Especially given that we are all connected through various organizations with our neighbors. We ourselves have also shared intelligence with our neighbors in a spirit of trust. I don't think I'm revealing any secrets by saying that, for example, we shared information with Finland and Sweden before they became NATO members," Väli said.

"No one else will do what needs to be done for Europe. Increasing aid to Ukraine, maybe providing a bit more weaponry — that could happen. Relations with the U.S. may cool and efforts may be made to modernize European defense forces. But I don't see a genuine willingness to take full control of European defense and security matters," said Rainer Saks.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!