More respondents to the same survey said culpability in the coalition split lay with the Reform Party, than with Eesti 200 or the Social Democrats (SDE).

Thirty-two percent of respondents to the survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of the conservative think tank the Institute for Societal Studies and published Thursday, said they do not see the need for elections on an extraordinary basis.

The results follow the ejection of SDE from office at the start of the week, leaving the Reform Party and Eesti 200 to continue as a bipartite coalition.

The Norstat survey polled respondents on the necessity of extraordinary elections, the resignation of the prime minister, and about respondents' preferred candidate as prime minister.

With the first question, Norstat asked: "Do you think extraordinary elections should be held in Estonia?" to which 59 percent responded "Yes" or "Preferably yes," compared with 32 percent who responded "No" or "Preferably not," to the question. Nine percent of respondents were undecided.

This represents the highest proportion of support for holding off-schedule Riigikogu elections, constitutionally viable but never done in Estonia since the restoration of independence, since Norstat started asking the question in its polls.

The highest percentage of support for extraordinary elections prior to that had been 55 percent, posted in November 2023.

Norstat also asked respondents their party affiliations.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, support for holding extraordinary elections was high among those who vote for one of the three opposition parties, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), the Center Party, and Isamaa.

Ninety-seven percent of EKRE supporters backed holding elections on an extraordinary basis, compared with 88 percent of Center supporters who did so, and 80 percent of Isamaa supporters.

The picture was the opposite with Reform Party supporters, 92 percent of whom said they opposed off-schedule elections.

For Eesti 200 voters, the figure stood at 63 percent opposed, while supporters of SDE – the party expelled from office – were split almost 50-50 on the issue; 52 percent of SDE supporters said that extraordinary elections should not be held in Estonia at this point in time.

The survey also revealed 52 percent of respondents think that Prime Minister Kristen Michal should resign as prime minister.

However, a higher proportion, 56 percent, believe he should step down before forming a new coalition which he could lead.

Norstat also quizzed respondents on who they thought was to blame for the recent coalition split: While 19 percent put the blame at the door of SDE, now in opposition, 49 percent found the Reform Party to be culpable. Just 4 percent held Eesti 200 responsible for the developments.

As for respondents' first pick as prime minister, 24 percent chose Isamaa leader Urmas Reinsalu and 16 percent Center chair Mihhail Kõlvart.

Both were ahead of current incumbent Michal, at 12 percent, who in turn was only one percentage point ahead of EKRE leader Martin Helme.

Two of the most prominent figures in the recent split, Eesti 200 leader and Education Minister Kristina Kallas and SDE chair and former Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets polled at 5 percent and 4 percent respectively as preferred prime ministerial pick.

Those who answered "don't know" to this question totaled 28 percent.

Michal's support as prime minister has slipped since July 2024, the last time Norstat and the Institute for Societal Studies asked the same question; at that time Michal polled at 20 percent, in second place only to Reinsalu.

Michal had just entered office as prime minister at that time, while the latest results find him polling lower than his predecessor, Kaja Kallas, did at the end of her tenure as prime minister.

Norstat conducted its survey on March 13 both online and over the phone, quizzing 1,000 Estonian citizens.

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