The top contenders for procurement currently include air defense systems made by Israel, the U.S., including the Patriot system, and the French-Italian consortium Eurosam.

Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) in September 2023 signed an agreement in Nuremberg, Germany, involving the Estonian state ordering three batteries of infrared imaging system tail/thrust vector-controlled (IRIS-T) air defense systems for €400 million. This included accompanying radars and control centers.

This had been Estonia's largest defense procurement at that time and ended a debate over whether the state could afford medium-range air defense.

The first IRIS-T launchers are set to arrive by the end of this year, while Estonia has already indicated interest in procuring more weapons and ammunition from IRIS-T manufacturer Diehl Defense.

The IRIS-T Surface Launched Missile (SLM), with a range of up to 40 kilometers, defends maneuvering units and critical infrastructure from enemy aircraft and cruise missiles. In a few years, the company may also produce the SLX missile, with an 80-kilometer range to deter aircraft dropping glide bombs, deep behind the front lines.

Despite the value of such air defense systems, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shown that these systems can become targets themselves.

Estonia set to acquire long-range air defenses

Key targets in Estonia – airfields, ports, military command centers, rail intersections – are all sites whose destruction would severely curb Estonia's and its allies' capabilities. To defend them, the state is taking a new and greater step in air defense.

Mati Tikerpuu, category manager at the Estonian Center for Defense Investments (RKIK), said: "We are going to procure long-range air defense, with capabilities against ballistic missiles."

Ballistic missiles present formidable adversaries. For example, Russian 9K720 Iskander-M launches its payload at nearly 50 kilometers in altitude, where it descends at up to 8,000 kilometers per hour.

A missile launched from the Russian town of Luga, about 100 kilometers from the border with Estonia, could reach a target in Ämari in four minutes, carrying a half-ton warhead, capable of unpredictable zigzag maneuvers. This means the number of air defense systems which can effectively counter ballistic missiles is quite small.

Minister Pevkur said he expects an overview of potential suppliers for Estonia's planned anti-ballistic missile procurement by early April.

Pevkur said: "We know that many countries have already opened or are about to open their funding spigots. This means our job is to be just one step ahead of all those decisions, to secure the required contracts, as quickly as possible."

Italian/French, U.S., and Israeli systems

According to Tikerpuu, three systems are under closer consideration.

"We've been talking about the European SAMP/T, with the Aster missile family, of course the Patriot system, and then the Israeli system popularly known as David's Sling," Tikerpuu said.

Estonia's allies are familiar with all these systems.

David's Sling, developed by Israel's Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, made its combat debut in the Gaza war. The weapon has not, so far as is known, been supplied to Ukraine.

Finland announced, after joining NATO nearly two years ago, that it intends to strengthen its air defense via Israeli-made systems.

Because the new weapons system relies heavily on U.S. tech, Israel needed American approval to sell it; the agreement was finalized in fall 2023.

Around the same time, Germany expressed its intention to purchase.

The Germans are acquiring the joint U.S.-Israeli Arrow 3 air defense systems from Israel.

These weapons, capable of intercepting intercontinental ballistic missiles, are likely beyond Estonia's budget.

Estonia has little need for a missile defense system with a 2,500-kilometer range, which Arrow 3 has.

"Since our adversary is right on our doorstep, they won't have to fire from such a long range," Tikerpuu noted.

SAMP/T and Patriot have proven themselves in Ukraine

Tikerpuu said Estonia needs a system with a range of over 100 kilometers and an altitude reach of 20 kilometers.

This means intercepting missiles at the most critical moment – when they're descending at high speed.

The Ukraine experience shows that both the French-Italian SAMP/T system, using the Aster missile, and the U.S. MIM-104 Patriot have this capability.

In addition to the manufacturing nations, the U.K. and Greece are SAMP/T users.

Some articles suggest SAMP/T may struggle with target acquisition compared to Patriot.

At the same time, this information is often presented in the context of Eurosam, the system's manufacturer, showcasing new radar and upgraded missile developments.

The Patriot system, a collaboration between Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing, is the most widely deployed of the three systems noted above, with at least six NATO nations using it in addition to the U.S., and Ukraine, whose defensive arsenal now includes a significant portion of Patriot stockpiles previously designated for NATO's European defenses.

Investment will likely exceed one billion euros

But if all three weapons systems can meet Estonia's requirements, how should the choice be made?

Tikerpuu said Estonia has already been in communication with all manufacturers and has received presentations on the systems.

"Now we need to get more specific and start discussing quantities, delivery times, and prices," Tikerpuu said.

However, companies are reluctant to share that information over just a few emails.

The first face-to-face meeting is expected to take place this month, with a second already scheduled for May.

However, ahead of that, the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) needs to calculate how many launch units Estonia actually requires.

This involves assessing how many targets need defense and how the enemy might strike.

"This will immediately determine how many radar and control centers are needed," Tikerpuu explained, stressing that launchers alone are not enough.

Once the minimum purchase requirement is established, cost discussions can begin.

"Until you have a written offer, you can't state anything concrete," Tikerpuu said.

"Whether it will be one billion [euros] or 1.5 billion is hard to say right now," he added.

Pevkur also refrained from forecasting specifics in terms of sums, ahead of amassing bids.

He told ERR: "We are talking about sums which will stretch into the billions, and, for that reason, we are not disclosing any figures at this point."

Pevkur: Decision hinges on both the source of funding and who our partners are

For comparison, if Estonia's defense spending rises to 5 percent of GDP next year, that would amount to about €2.2 billion.

Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform), who in March introduced the idea of additional defense funding, noted that the hike to 5 percent of GDP defense spend is seen as a minimum in Estonia, adding that it may rise even higher if necessary.

Finance Minister Jürgen Ligi (Reform) took a more cautious stance on Tuesday, telling Vikerraadio that Estonia's defense spending should be capped at 5 percent, rather than as a baseline.

Pevkur stated that funding plans for defense investments should be finalized in April.

He noted that the choice of long-range air defense system could also depend on the source of funding.

"If we use joint European loan funds, there is a clear expectation that the systems should mostly come from Europe. If we use Estonian taxpayer money, our hands will be freer," Pevkur explained.

It is also significant that military personnel from two of the weapon system supplier countries – the U.S. and France – are present in Estonia serving with NATO.

"With investments of this magnitude, we must consider them through the lens of strategic partnership at the level of government. Simply choosing the cheapest or fastest option may not be the wisest choice," Pevkur said.

However, is it possible that Estonia might garner offers and then decide not to buy missile defense systems, due to long delivery times or overly hefty price tags?

In response, Pevkur said: "I believe that we must base our decision on military needs."

"Naturally, budget affects us all, but we must consider what is needed to defend Estonia and its people. Our task, together with the EDF, is to draw up these plans and then, with the Ministry of Finance, determine how they can be funded as a top priority," the minister concluded.

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