The terms for a peace deal are for the Ukrainian people to decide, he said—an approach also taken by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. As long as Ukrainians feel they can fight, the war will continue. If they can't, Ukraine might start considering ceding Crimea and the easternmost oblasts currently occupied by Russia, Hvostov added.

Hvostov referenced a Wall Street Journal report suggesting the U.S. is allegedly offering Russia a scenario in which Ukraine gives up Crimea, occupied by Russia since an illegal 2014 referendum.

What Ukrainians think about this isn't fully known, though it's easy to imagine Zelenskyy rejecting such a proposal.

"And the other thing that is allegedly being offered to Russia is that Ukraine's NATO membership is no longer a definitive topic," he added.

When asked whether Putin would actually withdraw from other occupied areas if Ukraine gave up Crimea, Hvostov said he finds that idea hard to believe.

"That they would just leave and not present it as a win? But he has to show a victory to his people. That all this three years of horror was all only for Crimea — I can hardly imagine that. He won't give up those territories. Likely, this year we'll see the war continue, and there will be no serious peace or peace talks," Hvostov went on.

While Russia's early attempts to take Kyiv and Kharkiv failed, parts of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts remain under occupation.

As for other scenarios, Hvostov said: "I don't like to make predictions, but I fear that in the second half of this year we will be seeing a summit between the U.S., China, and Russia, where they divide the world up into spheres of influence. Everything seems to be heading in that direction."

On the U.S. role — especially that of President Donald Trump — Hvostov noted that although Trump recently said an agreement could come this week, he has made many past claims that didn't come true.

"Anyone who claims they understand what is going on globally and in American foreign policy is probably lying. No one understands any of it," the expert added.

If the U.S. stops mediating and leaves Ukraine's defense to Europe, Europe isn't ready, Hvostov said.

"Europe still hopes that this will somehow resolve itself painlessly," he concluded.
After a recent Easter truce that lasted barely 30 hours — highlighting the difficulty of even a 30-day ceasefire, as aimed for by the Trump administration — fighting resumed, with Russia striking Kherson after it had already killed civilians in Sumy, and Ukraine hitting a military drone facility in Kursk oblast.

Russia changed its constitution in 2022 to include Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts as Russian territory, despite not fully occupying them. These are areas where Russia had engaged in a shadow war since 2014, before the full-scale invasion.

The claim also allows Russia, under its own rules, to deploy conscripts — normally barred from service outside the country — to these occupied areas. Even then, Russia has shifted focus to recruiting volunteers, mainly from poorer regions, and also to relying on North Korean troops.

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