An aggressive Russia is a long‑term strategic threat to Europe. It is natural that we want to know as much as possible about this threat, and in fact we know quite well what is happening on the other side of the Narva River or Lakes Peipus and Pskov. In addition to our own intelligence, our allies' threat assessments help us see even further. So I can state honestly and calmly that nothing is happening there that would in any way confirm the repeatedly rising claims that Russia wants to launch a military attack against a NATO country in this region.

Various think tanks try to capture media attention with loud headlines. Their papers describe how Russia might bite off a piece of Estonia, for example, to test NATO's Article 5. I have taken part in dozens of exercises and have often shaken my head, because the exercise's lofty scenario has no grounding in reality. An unrealistic scenario that frequently ignores Estonia's independent defense capability and NATO membership makes the entire exercise largely questionable.

And then there are some former intelligence chiefs who throw more fuel onto the fire of fear. I do not understand why they do this. Estonia's foreign intelligence service — together with our allies — has a clear assessment: Russia currently has no intention of militarily attacking any NATO member state.

"Chill out!" says my colleague at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Jonatan Vseviov. Calm down!

Finland's president Alexander Stubb simply urges us to keep a cool head — to be calm and balanced. And confident, I would add. Confident, not insecure.

Confidence also means not letting ourselves be frightened by think‑tank papers or anyone else, and being able to ask whether someone claiming Narva is "next" truly knows more than all the intelligence and security agencies in our region. That is not credible, as a judge would say.

But while I say that we currently see no intention from Russia to launch a military attack against NATO allies, I do clearly see Russia's continuous desire to destabilize Europe, intimidate us, and pressure us into abandoning support for Ukraine.

Moscow has chosen a long confrontation with Western countries and NATO, evidenced by acts of sabotage marked by increasingly aggressive footprints of Russian special services. By now, most NATO allies have seen such activity on their soil; the most recent well‑known case was the attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport, for which Germany placed unequivocal responsibility on Russia.

Europe's democratic police and security agencies are strong, and their cooperation amplifies each other's capabilities. This allows us to see further and deeper, to detect the adversary and understand its patterns of action.

Estonia — and not only Estonia — has proven that we can catch saboteurs. Courts judge their actions and intentions, and they are sent to prison. We have made the environment here extremely uncomfortable and hostile for Russian special services, and that deterrence prevents many crimes.

In any case, I am in the same boat as those who say that after every sabotage case in which a Russian link is established, we must point a finger and say: we know what you are doing, and there will be consequences.

We will not let ourselves be intimidated, because if we did, we would allow Russia to win one specific battle. That would be wrong in every way, because we are on the winning side.

And the answer to the question "Is Narva next?" is simple: "Yes, it is. For tourists who are interested in history." Narva indeed has a fascinating history as the Last Homely House.

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