Final surveys: Reform have edge, Centre and EKRE may rally on polling day

Sunday is election day.
Sunday is election day. Source: Anna Aurelia Minev/ERR

Advance voting may well have gone decisively the Reform Party's way, ahead of Sunday's general election, according to the latest survey by pollster Kantar Emor.

Whilst there are no exit polls in the Estonian general election, getting a picture of how things may go on Sunday is down to the final surveys being published.

Kantar Emor polled those who engaged in advance voting, which ran 21-27 February, and attracted nearly 40% of the electorate.

The research demonstrated that Reform seemed to benefit the most from the e-vote, and did well overall (ie. advance e-votes, plus in-person votes) too.

Whereas most recent polls have had Centre and Reform virtually neck-and-neck, if anything with Centre slightly ahead, the Kantar Emor research gives just under 30% to Reform, but 22.3% to Centre.

Taking the e-vote separately, the gulf is even higher, with 35.6% to Reform, and just 18.9% to Centre.

Similarly, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) misses out when support via e-voting alone is taken – 8.6%, versus 13.4% in advance voting as a whole (and support ratings in other surveys as high as the late teens, or even early 20s by some estimates).

The picture, however, changes when asked for the political preferences of those who are definitely planning to go vote on Sunday, polling day. In any case the question flips the front two parties, with Centre ahead of Reform, on 28.4% to 21%. In fact, as EKRE reported on its own social media page, this measurement puts the party in second place, on 23.8%, the first research to put EKRE in the top two.

The breakdown of the Kantar Emor survey of support across all the parties running is as follows.

Party Advance voting (%) Advance voting: e- vote only (%) Voting on the day (%)
Reform29.9  35.6  21.0
Centre22.3  18.9  28.4
EKRE13.4  8.6  23.8
SDE13.4  14.4  9.3
Isamaa11.8  12.6  7.2
Estonia 2004.0  5.0  4.8
Free1.2  0.7  1.4
Greens2.7  3.0  1.3
Richness of Life1.2  0.7  1.2

 Source: Kantar Emor

As can be seen, Estonia 200, SDE and Isamaa all see slight improvements when taking the e-vote alone, which is the opposite for Free and Richness of Life. Additionally, the Green Party are ahead of Free, as well as Richness of Life, according to the survey.

EKRE and Centre are the big winners on the day, according to the research, compared with Reform, Isamaa and the Social Democratic Party (SDE); the Greens miss out a bit on election day, however.

Kantar Emor has also combined the above results. Reform would win the elections, on this amalgamated basis. The final tally would be:

Party Support (%)
  Reform 26.6
  Centre 24.5
  EKRE 17.3
  SDE 11.9
  Isamaa 10.1
  Estonia 200 4.3
  Greens 2.2
  Free 1.3
  Richness of Life 1.1


Whilst we may be tempted to think that this has to be the very last push-poll before election day, one more last-minute survey needs reporting.

Norstat figures

The Institute for the Study of Societal Issues, in cooperation with pollster Norstat, is giving the win to Reform, by a bigger margin than Kantar Emor did, as above.

The institute's survey, conducted by Norstat, was conducted on February 24 to March 1.

As advance voting started on February 21, ie. before the survey period, 38% of respondents had already cast their vote and were asked to name the party they had in practice voted for, with the remainder being asked who they were planning to vote for.

The breakdown of the Norstat survey is:

PartySupport (%)
Estonia 2004.4
Richness of Life0.2
No preference*18.0

Source: Norstat

The polls open on Sunday at 09.00 and close at 20.00, local time.

For those eligible to vote who haven't yet decided, or even for any interested parties, ERR's Election compass tool (in Estonian) may be of help.


*The no preference percentage is of all those polled and so is a separate figure, the other percentages are from those who expressed a preference.

Editor: Andrew Whyte

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