Ratings: Virtual four-way split in support for four largest parties

Party ratings have equalized.
Party ratings have equalized. Source: Siim Lõvi/ERR, kollaaž: JJ Oidermaa

In February, the four parties with the largest support fell within one percentage point of each other, namely Eesti 200, the Center Party, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) and the Reform Party, who all essentially had equal support, according to a Kantar Emor survey commissioned by ERR.

If the Riigikogu elections were to take place tomorrow, voters would give 21 percent of the votes to Eesti 200, and 20 percent each to the Center Party, EKRE and the Reform Party.

Eesti 200 at present has no Riigikogu seats, having been founded only a few months ahead of the last Riigikogu elections in 2019.

A month earlier, in January, EKRE had 22 percent of the support, Eesti 200 percent and the Center Party 20 percent, while the Reform Party polled at 19 percent.

The support for the Social Democratic Party (SDE), which changed its chairman, increased from 7 percent in January to 9 percent in February. However, the support for the Isamaa Party fell from 9 percent in January to 7 percent in February, Kantar Emor says.

Three percent supported the Estonian Greens in February, and four percent in January. The Greens also recently acquired a new chairperson. The support of the TULE party was less than one percent (0.4 percent), according to Norstat.

The total support of the coalition parties was 40 percent, and that of the three opposition parties in the Riigikogu was 36 percent. Non-parliamentary parties garnered a total of 24 percent support.

The support of the Center Party is only 12 percent among Estonians

Among Estonian voters, three parties have essentially equal support - the support of Eesti 200, EKRE and the Reform Party is a little over 22 percent. At the same time, only 12 percent of Estonian voters support the Center Party, which is closer to the support of 8 percent for the Isamaa Party and Social Democratic Party (SDE).

However, the Center Party is a clear leader among voters of other nationalities, in practice predominantly Russian-speakers, with 51 percent of the vote.

Eesti 200, SDE, EKRE and the Reform Party with fairly equal support follow - their support is 10-14 percent among voters of other nationalities. Like the Center Party, the support of the SDE is higher among voters of other nationalities, although not so overwhelmingly.

The most popular party in Tallinn was the Center Party with 31 percent. The party was followed by Eesti 200 supported by 22 percent, and the Reform Party by 20 percent. EKRE's support in Tallinn was only 11 percent. Eight percent of the capital's population supported the SDE and five percent supported the Fatherland.

EKRE, on the other hand, was most popular in Western Estonia (Pärnu County, Lääne County, Hiiumaa, Saaremaa) with 30 percent and in Southern Estonia with almost 39 percent.

In Harju, Rapla and Järva counties, the Reform Party, the Center Party and EKRE were essentially equal, with support of just over 20 percent.

In Tartu and Jõgeva counties, Estonia was in the first place and the Reform Party with 23-24 percent support.

Eesti 200 has taken young supporters from the Reform Party

Eesti 200 is more popular among younger voters. In the age groups 18-24 and 25-34, their support is almost 30 percent.

On the other hand, the support of the Reform Party in these groups of respondents is lower than the average support of the party. The Reform Party has more supporters among those aged 35-49.

The Center Party is more popular among voters aged 50+. EKRE support is fairly evenly high among 25-64-year-olds.

SDE is more supported by younger voters and older voters in the Fatherland.

Kantar Emor conducted an all-Estonian survey commissioned by ERR on October 10-18. February and was answered by 1,503 citizens of preference who had a party preference. Half of the respondents are interviewed online and half by telephone.

Kantar Emor provides data on respondents who had a political preference. This makes the presentation of the results comparable to the situation in the Riigikogu elections. In February, 24 percent of the respondents could not say their political preference, in January there was 23 percent of such respondents.


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Editor: Roberta Vaino

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