Survey: Estonians do not believe major military attack is very likely

Defense Forces exercise Bold Hussar.
Defense Forces exercise Bold Hussar. Source:

An extensive military attack on Estonia is considered likely by 23 percent of residents, while a limited attack against a particular target is feared by 31 percent of respondents, a study commissioned by the Government Office and carried out by pollster Turu-uuringute AS reveals.

People interviewed were asked: how likely do you hold the following in the coming years? The options of "very likely" or "rather likely" were offered.

Even though just 4 percent of people consider a major attack on Estonia to be very likely, 19 percent of residents find it rather likely.

An extensive attack was considered likely (both very and rather) by more Estonians than people of other nationalities at 25 percent versus 19 percent.

A limited strike on a strategic target was held to be very likely by 5 percent and rather likely by 26 percent of respondents (31 percent total). The difference between Estonians and non-ethnic Estonians was greater still here – 37 versus 19 percent respectively.

This gap was reversed regarding another potential threat. Estonia's economic collapse is feared by 39 percent of respondents, while it is 54 percent among non-ethnic Estonians and 31 percent for Estonians.

37 percent of residents consider clashes between social groups based on national or religious grounds to be likely. This is held more likely by non-ethnic Estonians (45 percent) than Estonians (32 percent).

Fake news and cyberattacks feared the most

No fewer than 85 percent of people questioned mentioned the spread of fake news as a threat, with 79 percent regarding cyberattacks against state information systems, the private sector and individuals as a possibility.

68 percent of respondents mentioned hate speech, 55 percent a foreign country interfering in Estonian politics or economy to serve its own interests.

Extensive marine pollution is held to be a possibility by 50 percent of people, environmental pollution by 40 percent, while 41 percent believe Estonia could be hit by a pandemic.

27 percent of people consider mass street protests a realistic prospect.

A nuclear disaster at a nearby plant is feared by 19 percent of people (22 percent of Estonians and 12 percent of people from other nationalities.

Turu-uuringute AS interviewed 1,256 people who were at least 15 years of age October 14-17.


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Editor: Marcus Turovski

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