While Tallinn has gained 12,626 residents this year, it is the result of Ukrainian arrivals as births are down.
If in 2021, the number of Tallinn residents fell for the first time in a long while, it has grown by a notable 12,626 people this year. However, this growth does not reflect more births or Estonians moving to the capital but rather Ukrainian war refugees.
Data from the Tallinn Vital Statistics Department reveals that 13,279 Ukrainian citizens were registered as citizens of Tallinn between March 1 and November 1, with a total 21,252 Ukrainian citizens registered as living in the Estonian capital.
The start of the war and the number of refugees clearly reflect in Tallinn population statistics. While the population shrank by 800 people in January and February, an increase of over 13,000 has been registered since March.
Tallinn had 457,631 registered residents as of November 1.
Number of births down from one year to the next
The year 2021 was exceptional in that it was the first time in the last 15 years the total population of Tallinn fell, by 683 people. The year before saw an additional 1,756 residents. The main reason for this trend is negative population change as 4,373 people were born, while 5,506 died.
The number of births in Tallinn was down by 100 compared to 2020. There have been even fewer births this year. The number of births for the first ten months of the year has come down from 3,754 in 2021 to 3,369 this year. If last year, there were three months when the number of births exceeded 400, the tally for 2022 is none. The most births were registered in August at 382.
Kristi Kail, deputy head of the department's population division, told ERR that birthrate is affected by lower number of women in fertile age, family policy and crises.
"Population change is also affected by migration processes and various social and economic factors. Forecasts suggests that natural population change will remain negative, while migration will be positive this year," Kail said.
The birthrate is down across Estonian local governments. While more births were registered last year compared to 2020, the trend is down again this year.
Last year, at least one thousand births were registered each month (from 1,003 in February to 1,202 in September). This year, however, there have been four months that have seen fewer than 1,000 births: January (905), February (859), April (889) and October (968).
The number of deaths is also down; 1,376 people died in October of this year but 1,585 last year.
Editor: Marcus Turovski