Norstat ratings: Eesti 200 has lowest support among parliamentary parties

Lauri Hussar and Kristina Kallas at the Eesti 200 press conference.
Lauri Hussar and Kristina Kallas at the Eesti 200 press conference. Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

According to the survey conducted by the Institute for Social Research and Norstat Eesti AS last week, Eesti 200 has fallen to the bottom of the list of parliamentary parties in terms of support, while Isamaa has risen to fourth place.

The Reform Party has the support of 26.8 percent of eligible electors, followed by the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) with 23.2 percent and the Center Party with 16.1 percent.

Over the past week, support for the Reform Party increased by 1.1 percentage points, while support for EKRE decreased by 1 percentage point.

While EKRE overtook Reform to become the most popular party at the end of May, the Reform Party has gained ground in June and the prime minister's party now leads EKRE by 3.6 percentage points, according to the most recent results.

In the past three weeks, support for the Center Party has decreased by 2.3 percentage points.

Following the top three are Isamaa with 10.1 percent; the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 9.7 percent; and Eesti 200 with 8.2 percent.

The last time Isamaa's support was higher than it is now was in March 2019, just after the 2019 state elections. Isamaa is now in fourth place in terms of popularity, according to the most recent results.

Eesti 200 has dropped 6.9 percentage points of support since the beginning of March, placing it last among parliamentary parties.

A total of 45.4 percent of respondents support the coalition parties and 49.4 percent the opposition parties. The latest aggregated results cover the polling period from May 23 to June 20 and a total of 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were interviewed.

In presenting the results, the Institute for Social Research and the survey company Norstat Eesti AS have focused on the aggregate result of the last four weeks, which means that the sample will be at least 4,000 people, excluding voters with no party preference in the calculation of relative support for political parties.

Maximum error rate is proportional to the size of the biggest group. In this survey, 26.8 percent of respondents identified as Reform Party supporters, with a margin of error of +/-1.67 percent. The margin of error for the ratings of other parties is lesser, for instance +/-1.07 percent for the Eesti 200. This method of calculating the support percentages of political parties smooths out fluctuations in individual polls caused by larger statistical errors and short-term events.


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Editor: Mirjam Mäekivi, Kristina Kersa

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