Party ratings: Reform support rises, Eesti 200's continues to fall

Riigikogu building.
Riigikogu building. Source: Siim Lõvi /ERR

The prime minister's party, Reform, has seen its support continue to rise in the past week, according to a recent survey, though its coalition partner, Eesti 200, is continuing to see a slump in popularity with voters.

The research, issued by Norstat on behalf of the Institute of Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühishonnauuringute Instituut), found that a total of 44.4 percent of respondents pledged their support for one of the three coalition parties: Reform, Eesti 200 or the Social Democrats (SDE).

However, combined support for the three opposition parties, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), the Center Party and Isamaa, ran higher, at 50.2 percent.

By party, Reform picked up 28 percent of support, a rise of 1.2 percentage points on week.

EKRE came second, with 22.6 percent of support, relatively unchanged on the preceding week, while the Center Party polled at 17 percent, up 1.4 percentage points on the previous week's results.

The gap between the Reform Party in first place and EKRE in second (5.4 percentage points) is almost the same as that between EKRE and Center, in third place (5.6 percentage points' difference).

Isamaa polled at 10.6 percent, and SDE at 9.1 percent, both ratings which have remained relatively stable in recent weeks.

Meanwhile Eesti 200 polled the lowest out of any of the Riigikogu parties, at 7.3 percent.

In early March, at the time of the general election, Eesti 200 polled at just under 16 percent, but with the end of the honeymoon period after both winning its first seats and entering office in one fell swoop, unpopular policies put in place by the coalition as a whole, and two separate controversies involving two of its MPs, have seen its support haemorrhage since then.

The line graph below shows the relative changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys in their current format. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed.)

The two tables show recent weeks' results for the aggregated four weeks, followed by the weekly results.

Norstat conducts its poll on a weekly basis, then aggregates the results over a four-week period.

The latest poll covers the period June 12 to July 17 and quizzed 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age, over the phone and online.

Norstat claims a margin of error in proportion to the size of support for a given party, so for instance, the results for Reform as the most-supported party have a stated error margin of +/- 1.69 percent compared with +/- 1 percent for Eesti 200.

The next election is to the European Parliament next June.


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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mait Ots

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