Party ratings: Eesti 200 support continues to fall

Coalition negotiations between Reform, SDE and Eesti 200 started at Stenbock House on March 8, 2023.
Coalition negotiations between Reform, SDE and Eesti 200 started at Stenbock House on March 8, 2023. Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

Support for the coalition Eesti 200 party fell by almost 10 percent over the past week, to 7.7 percent, according to a recent survey. Reform continues as most-supported political party in Estonia, though experience a recent, small drop in support also.

The survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of the Institute of Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühishonnauuringute Instituut), found support for the coalition Reform Party at 26.8 percent (down from 27.4 percent the preceding week).

The opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) polled at 23.5 percent, half-a-percentage-point more than the last time Norstat conducted its regular survey, while the Center Party, also in opposition, saw a rise in its support on week too – from 15.6 percent to 16.2 percent in the latest survey.

These "top" three were followed by Isamaa, whose rating was unchanged on the previous week, at 10.5 percent.

Isamaa is in opposition, but polled ahead of the other two coalition partners, the Social Democratic Party (SDE) at 9.9 percent (virtually unchanged on week) and Eesti 200, which picked up 7.7 percent of support.

The previous week Eesti 200, which has been struggling to find its feet since being pitched into government after the March general election having previously held no Riigikogu seats, picked up 8.3 percent of support, according to Norstat.

Norstat reported on support for two other parties, both unrepresented in parliament: Parempoolsed, which was formed last year and polled at 2.4 percent (down from 2.5 percent the week before), and the Estonian Greens, whose support also fell by 0.1 percentage points, to 1.6 percent.

The line graph below shows the relative changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys in their current format. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed.)

The two tables show recent weeks' results for the aggregated four weeks, followed by the weekly results.

Norstat conducts its surveys on a weekly basis, aggregating them over four weeks – the results presented above.

When taken on the basis of single week by single week, Reform's support has in fact fallen quite sharply between the most recent week (July 4-10, when Reform's rating was 25.7 percent) and the previous week (June 26-30, when the party picked up 29.3 percent of support).

Eesti 200's rating has risen, on the other hand, from 5.9 percent to 7.3 percent, over the same period, though this is still lower than the aggregated level (see above).

Center's support rose from 16.1 percent to 17.7 percent over the same time-frame.

Norstat polls 1,000 plus Estonian citizens of voting age each week, online and over the phone and weighted to various socio-economic indicators, the company says. It claims a margin of error in proportion to the popularity of a party, but no more than +/-1.55 percent over the four weeks, and no more than +/- 3.1 percent within one week.


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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mait Ots

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