Eesti 200 rating continues downward spiral

Eesti 200 has dropped considerably since elections in March.
Eesti 200 has dropped considerably since elections in March. Source: ERR

Support for the coalition Eesti 200 party dropped to 9 percent in June in ERR and Kantar Emor's monthly poll.

Support for Eesti 200, the result of which at the March parliamentary elections was 13.3 percent, climbed to 17 percent in April before dropping to 13 percent in May and just 9 percent in June. While Eesti 200 were competing with EKRE and Center a few months ago, its rating is now on par with Isamaa.

"The biggest change in June was the continued downward trend of Eesti 200. Ratings changes for other parties of just a few points are statistically negligible," said Aivar Voog, survey expert at pollster Kantar Emor.

The Reform Party was the most popular political force in June on 25 percent, up two points since May.

The prime minister's party was the first to see its rating (31.2 percent) drop sharply after elections in April, which Voog suggested might have something to do with it and Eesti 200 having similarly inclined voters.

The expert added that Eesti 200's continued slump could see Reform start to recover after a while.

Support for opposition leader the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) came down from 23 percent in May to 21 percent in June, which Voog interprets as connected to Isamaa having gained a few points since it recently elected a new chairman. Isamaa's rating is 9 percent in June, up from 6 percent after the March elections.

The Center Party's position is virtually unchanged since May, with their rating going from 17 percent to 18 percent.

The coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE) gained two points, going from 10 percent in May to 12 percent in June.

The non-parliamentary Parempoolsed managed a rating of 4 percent in June, taking them close to the election threshold of 5 percent.

The Estonian Greens clocked a rating of 2 percent and the United Left Party 1 percent in June.

The three coalition partners (Reform, Eesti 200, SDE) have a combined rating of 46 percent in June versus the opposition's (EKRE, Center, Isamaa) 47 percent.

The relative importance of undecided respondents remained unchanged from May at 23 percent. Of ethnic Estonians 21 percent did not have a set preference, while this was 30 percent for non-ethnic Estonians.

With the "cannot say" vote factored in, Reform's rating would be 20 percent, EKRE's 16 percent and Center's 13 percent.

Estonian respondents backed Reform (29 percent), EKRE (23 percent), SDE (11 percent), with Isamaa, Eesti 200 and Center all taking 10 percent.

Among non-ethnic Estonians, Center was on top (43 percent), followed by EKRE (16 percent) and SDE (15 percent). Reform had 9 percent, Eesti 200 6 percent and Isamaa 4 percent of the vote in the group.

Reform was also the most popular party in the capital Tallinn (26 percent), followed by Center on 23 percent.

Kantar Emor carried out the ERR-commissioned survey June 8-14 polling 1,476 voting-age citizens between 18 and 84 years of age. A third of respondents were polled over the phone and two-thirds online. The maximum margin of error is +/- 2.5 percent.


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Editor: Urmet Kook. Marcus Turovski

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