Norstat ratings: EKRE's recent fall in support has halted

Martin Helme, EKRE leader, in the Vikerraadio studio with Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform).
Martin Helme, EKRE leader, in the Vikerraadio studio with Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform).

Support for most of Estonia's political parties has remained relatively stable over the past week, though the Reform Party has seen a drop in its rating of 1.7 percentage points over the past fortnight, according to a recent survey.

Support for the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), which had been in falling for the past two months, has now stabilized, according to the survey – conducted on a weekly basis by pollsters Norstat on behalf of the  Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut).

A total of 45 percent of respondents pledged for one of the three coalition partners: Reform, Eesti 200 or the Social Democrats (SDE), while more respondents, at 50.1 percent, picked on of the three opposition parties, namely EKRE, the Center Party or Isamaa.

By party, according to the latest Norstat poll, Reform polled at 26.6 percent, EKRE at 22 percent and Center at 18.3 percent.

Support for the latter has risen by 2.7 percentage points over a five-week period, though the latest data suggests that rise has now plateaued.

Reform lies 4.6 percentage points ahead of EKRE, while EKRE in turn is 3.7 percentage points ahead of Center, according to the latest Norstat poll.

The "top" three are followed by SDE (who polled at 10.4 percent in the latest Norstat survey), Isamaa (at 9.8 percent) and Eesti 200 (8 percent).

Eesti 200 has been able to halt and, by one percentage point, reverse, a long running trend for a freefall in support, dating back to just after the March 5 Riigikogu election.

Norstat aggregates its weekly results over a four-week period; the latest survey covers the period July 11 to August 7, and quizzed 4,001 Estonian citizens of voting age, weighted to socio-economic indicators and conducted both online and over-the-phone.

Norstat claims a margin error in proportion to the size of a party by support. For instance, Reform, with 26.6 percent support, has a margin of error of +/- 1.68 percent associated with its rating, compared with +/- 1.03 percent for Eesti 200, which as noted polled at 8 percent this time.

The next elections are to the European Parliament, in June 2024.


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Editor: Andrew Whyte

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