Poll: SDE and Isamaa ratings reach highest levels in years

Comparison of SDE (red) and Isamaa (teal) ratings in July vs August. SDE chair Lauri Läänemets (left) and Isamaa leader Urmas Reinsalu (right).
Comparison of SDE (red) and Isamaa (teal) ratings in July vs August. SDE chair Lauri Läänemets (left) and Isamaa leader Urmas Reinsalu (right). Source: ERR

The ratings of the coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE) and the opposition Isamaa climbed to their highest levels in the past few years in August. Support for Eesti 200 has meanwhile dropped to its lowest level since 2019 in Kantar Emor's poll commissioned by ERR.

The Reform Party maintained a firm grip on its lead in August at 25 percent, down 1 point since a month ago.

The Conservative People's Party (EKRE) came in second on 18 percent. The national conservatives' rating has been waning over the summer months, coming down from 23 percent in May.

Center have now all but caught up with EKRE on 17 percent, up a point since July.

The Social Democratic Party has fourth place locked down with a rating of 14 percent in August, the highest since January 2020.

Isamaa climbed to fifth place in August on 11 percent, which is also the highest it has scored in Kantar Emor polls over the past few years. Their rating was 9 percent in July and just 6 percent after the Riigikogu elections in March.

The coalition Eesti 200 had the lowest support rating among parliamentary parties in August at just 7 percent. The last time the party's rating was this low was four years ago in August 2019. Eesti 200 enjoyed a rating of 17 percent only in April.

The non-parliamentary Parempoolsed clocked in at 4 percent and are nearing the election threshold of 5 percent. The Estonian Greens had the support of 3 percent and the United Left Party just 1 percent of potential voters.

The coalition was backed by 47 percent of respondents and the opposition by 46 percent in August. In July, these figures were 48 percent and 45 percent respecitvely.

Voog: Isamaa benefited from EKRE's low visibility this summer

Aivar Voog, survey expert for the pollster, said that the results rather reflect minor displacement.

"Isamaa have been visible in the media over the last few weeks, while EKRE have taken a step back and allowed the former to boost its rating at their expense."

Voog remarked that Isamaa's recent clashes with the ruling Reform Party have likely also helped its rating.

"While EKRE were the ones engaging Reform in spring and early summer, Isamaa is now at odds with the prime minister's party over such thing as the presidential office's funding, the Pere Sihtkapital scandal etc.

The polling expert added that SDE have also managed to gain ground, mostly at the expense of Eesti 200.

Relative importance of 'cannot say' vote up

Kantar Emor polled 1,494 voting-age citizens in August of whom 25 percent did not have a preference. The 'cannot say' vote also came to 25 percent in July and 23 percent in June. This was 21 percent for Estonian voters and 38 percent among respondents of other nationalities.

With the 'cannot say' vote factored in, support for the Reform Party came to 20 percent, EKRE 13 percent and Center Party 12 percent.

This was 11 percent for SDE, 9 percent for Isamaa and 6 percent Eesti 200.

Support by voter group

The Estonian vote gave Reform 30 percent and EKRE 19 percent in August, down from 32 percent and 22 percent respectively in July.

SDE had the support of 14 percent of Estonian respondents, Isamaa 13 percent, Center 9 percent and Eesti 200 8 percent.

Voters of other nationalities still prefer the Center Party on 46 percent, down 1 point since July.

EKRE came in second on 14 percent, followed by SDE with 13 percent. The Reform Party and Eesti 200 were both backed by 7 percent of non-Estonian respondents.

Among voters who can vote at parliamentary elections (which does no include citizens of other countries who can vote in local elections – ed.), Reform was the most popular party in Tallinn on 27 percent, with Center nipping at their heels on 24 percent.

EKRE had a rating of 15 percent and SDE 13 percent in the capital, while that of Eesti 200 has fallen from 10 percent in July to 5 percent in August. Isamaa was backed by just 3 percent of Tallinners.

The Center Party was by far the most popular in Ida-Viru County (35 percent), followed by Reform Party (16 percent), EKRE (15 percent) and SDE (13 percent). The rating of the United Left Party that managed an elections result of 15 percent in the county in March has come down to 7 percent.

Reform were on top in Harju, Rapla, Lääne-Viru, Tartu and Jõgeva counties. EKRE were people's first choice in western and southern counties. This situation is unchanged since July.

Kantar Emor polled 1,494 citizens between the ages of 18-84 August 10-16. A third of respondents was interviewed over the phone and the rest online. The maximum margin of error is +- 2.5 percent.


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Editor: Urmet Kook, Marcus Turovski

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