EDF colonel: Russia holding initiative but has not met tactical aims

Russia is holding the initiative when it comes to ground forces activities and is also launching strikes against Ukraine's critical infrastructure. However, it has so far failed to meet its operational or tactical objectives, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces' (EDF) Intelligence Center.
In his regular Friday briefing at the Estonian Ministry of Defense, Col. Kiviselg said that despite holding the initiative, the Russian Federation has failed to meet its operational and tactical objectives to fully occupy the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.
"As the presidential elections in the Russian Federation approach, this will put even more pressure on the Russian armed forces to achieve some form of highly visible tactical victory that can be hyped and presented in the media as an overall victory in the war in Ukraine," Col. Kiviselg said.
In the Avdiivka and Marinka regions, Russia has failed to overcome the Ukrainian resistance, despite concerted efforts.
"It is safe to say that after the March presidential elections, the possible seizure of Avdiivka will not have the same propagandistic impact as it would have had before the presidential elections," the EDF colonel said.
According to Kiviselg, the inability to take Avdiivka could lead to discontent among the Russian armed forces and in the society after the presidential elections.
In the north, the Russian Federation continues to be active, although there have been no major changes there on the frontline.
"Russian Federation units are continuing with sabotage activities in the Kursk and Bryansk oblasts, in the areas bordering Ukraine, in the direction of Sumy and Kharkiv," Kiviselg said.
In Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are continuing to carry out offensive operations in the direction of Kupiansk and Lyman. "Despite a great deal of effort, the Russian Federation has no major progress to show there," Col. Kiviselg said.
The Donetsk direction has been the main focus of Russia's efforts over the past week. "In terms of activity throughout the week, 90 percent of the developments have taken place in Donetsk Oblast. Of this, half has been in the Avdiivka region," added Col. Kiviselg said.
"The settlement of Avdiivka is around 30 square kilometers, or the size of the city of Pärnu. Around it, the Russian Federation has concentrated almost 50,000 troops. This demonstrates the propaganda value of this small settlement for both the armed forces and political leadership of the Russian Federation," Col. Kiviselg said.
He went on to say that Russia has begun bombing Avdiivka using aircraft-launched glide bombs, making it even more difficult to defend the settlement.
During the week, Russian forces advanced northwards in Avdiivka, however, the settlement has not yet been encircled.
"Avdiivka is not yet surrounded, but there is an opening of about three and a half kilometers. It will become very difficult for Ukrainian units to support this area in the near future. However, despite this, Ukrainian forces have continued to hold out there, making localized counter-attacks and holding their positions," Col. Kiviselg said.
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Editor: Michael Cole