"It is certainly a very significant moment," said Mölder. "It does not only mean that Ansip will not stand in these elections. His message was that he was leaving active politics altogether, that he would not run as a candidate anywhere.

"I think this is a symbolic moment for the Reform Party. It tells us that the Reform Party in 2024 will not be the same as the Reform Party was in 2014. And it is a long way from the Reform Party of 1994. Perhaps what we are seeing here is the emergence of a completely new and different Reform Party," the political science added.

Mölder believes the withdrawal of Ansip's candidacy is likely to result in the Reform Party losing one of its mandates in the European Parliament. "As things stand, Urmas Paet is capable of doing very well in these elections, but he alone will not be enough to guarantee the Reform Party two seats in the European Parliament," Mölder said.

Mölder added, however, that it is not too late for someone from the Reform Party to emerge and save the day. "There are a lot of potential vote magnets among the Reform Party ranks. It all depends on how the party now presents them to the voters in the context of the European elections, so to speak," he said.

Mölder explained that Paet and Ansip are both familiar names to voters when it comes to the European Parliament. However, if a well-known figure from Estonian domestic politics were to stand in the European elections, voters might not support them for the role of MEP. "It is very difficult to speculate here. For that decision, we will have to wait for the party list," said Mölder.

Following Ansip's withdrawal, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas' position in the party will be strengthened, though the party itself will be weakened, Mölder said. "That position may be strengthened, but the party overall will not get stronger, at least in the short term," he said.

According to Mölder, tensions within the Reform Party will increase if the party only wins one mandate in the European elections. "It will definitely create tension. Perhaps the likelihood of Kaja Kallas moving to Europe will not increase because of that. It seems to me that she has made it quite clear that she would like to continue in Estonian domestic politics," Mölder said.

"The European Parliament elections are the first serious test since the last Riigikogu elections. The next test will be the local elections, and then the new Riigikogu elections," Mölder said.

He explained that if the Reform Party's support remains low in the context of the next Riigikogu elections, internal tensions will arise.

EKRE and Isamaa's European election lists were as expected

"The party lists came out generally as expected. There were a few familiar names and a few new names for both parties," Mölder said, commenting on Isamaa and EKRE's lists for the European Parliament elections.

Mölder said it was surprising that EKRE's front-runner will be party leader Martin Helme and not Jaak Madison.

"Why that is surprising is because we know that Jaak Madison's popularity in the European Parliament elections is significantly higher than Martin Helme's popularity. And Jaak Madison is certainly the one who is doing the best within EKRE.

Mölder added that Helme's candidacy will help to gather a few more votes.

"As far as Isamaa's list is concerned, we knew that Riho Terras would be the frontrunner and that Urmas Reinsalu would run. We also knew that Jüri Ratas would run – there were no surprises there," said Mölder.

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