Political observers: Ansip's withdrawal may cost Reform Party a mandate
The Reform Party could be out a mandate at the 2024 European Parliament elections following former chair Andrus Ansip's decision not to run, political observers in Estonia find. Current Reform leader, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has suggested Ansip may have decided not to run based on discouraging polling.
Aivar Voog, expert at pollster Kantar Emor, said that Ansip's surprise move of dropping his bid places Reform in a difficult situation. Ansip could have attracted supporters who do not otherwise support the ruling party but appreciate the former premier's style and experience, "Aktuaalne kaamera" news reported.
Voog suggested that Ansip's supporters include relatively more middle-aged and elderly men who expect firm positions from politicians.
"Aktuaalne kaamera" asked Reform Party secretary Timo Suslov whether he has tried to convince Ansip to change his mind. "I have not. Everyone makes their own decisions. I think it's sweet he plans to concentrate on the fun mission of being a grandfather. It's great," Suslov said.
Kallas has said that Ansip realized he lacked support in society. "He's an experienced enough politician to heed the polls, which were not encouraging from where he was standing."
Political analyst Ott Lumi said that infighting may cost the Reform Party one of the two mandates it is forecast to take at the upcoming European Parliament elections.
"It is a serious blow for the Reform Party. Ansip not running will cost them a mandate," Lumi noted.
Voog agreed, saying that there is very little to separate parties in pre-election polling. "Ansip's decision costing Reform 2 percentage points would be enough for them to surrender one of their projected mandates to Isamaa."
Suslov said that Reform members can choose between six men and six women at the party's in-house elections, with its final list of EP elections candidates to be approved on April 7.
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Marcus Turovski