At the start of the year, the tourism sector was optimistic, with bookings suggesting this summer would finally surpass the troubled previous ones caused by one crisis after another in Estonia. However, spring brought disappointing changes, as expectations and hotel bookings dramatically collapsed.

"Unfortunately, there have been significant changes within a month. Instead of an increase, which would be logical for this period, bookings have actually decreased," said Killu Maidla, the managing director of the Estonian Hotel and Restaurant Association, adding that there is little optimism going into the summer.

Last year was not exactly bustling with tourists either. Compared to the pre-COVID era, the number of foreign visitors in Estonia was almost a quarter less (-23 percent).

Due to the scarcity of bookings, even classic summer destinations like the Estonian islands and the summer capital, Pärnu, are bracing for a poor season. Adding to the islands' woes, ferry ticket prices were raised two years ago, affecting visitation rates.

Silja and Tarmo Vipre, who have been running a camping ground in Saaremaa for over a decade, however, see this as an opportune moment to renovate a long-unused accommodation complex.

"I feel very confident," said Silja Vipre. "There are all the opportunities for self-realization here, so what's there to fear? What comes, will come," she added.

Customers have become increasingly demanding. "Today's customer is very quality-conscious when it comes to food, drinks and accommodation. People have changed a lot as customers," said the Vipre family.

This shift in clientele, for different reasons, is also felt by lower-priced accommodations. Liis Senzio, who works at the Fat Margaret's hostel near Tallinn harbor, noted that people no longer travel to Estonia with the expectation of budget shopping. Instead, the hostel increasingly hosts backpacking families coming to explore the local nature. Naturally, their economic contribution to Estonia is smaller.

"Tallinn is right in the middle of nature, and this beautiful, easy access to the outdoors is being utilized more. This type of client probably wouldn't go to a hotel; since we are more price-friendly, they stay with us for the night but spend the entire day exploring," explained Senzio.

Despite the fact that Tallinn has become a major construction site in recent years, and Fat Margaret's is right next to the new tram line works, the hostel's manager remains optimistic: only locals complain about the construction noise, not tourists.

When the pandemic kept the industry afloat with domestic tourism, this too began to decline last year. Firstly, the rest of the world has reopened, and secondly, financial constraints force people to make choices.

"Clearly, if we have to choose today between taking our once-a-year trip to a warm country with the kids or spending a couple of weekends here in Estonia at a spa, I imagine the balance would tip towards the warmer destination, and those little mini-vacations and restaurant visits in Estonia are falling off," said Maidla.

The restaurant business is also facing tough times. Restaurant owners say that predicting the week ahead has become nearly impossible.

"There's no longer that moment when you say, 'This is Thursday, this is when it starts, we can plant our flag here and plan our staff accordingly, bring more people to work, have more staff in the kitchen, then it's all systems go.' Not anymore. Now it's like some unexpected Monday, an unpredictable Wednesday, a pointless Friday – it's completely unmanageable," explained Tanel Tatter, co-owner of the restaurant Kivi Paber Käärid.

Thus, those who continue to operate in the industry say that instead of light, there's only deep darkness at the end of the tunnel.

"In three years, the sector has accumulated losses of up to €84 million. That's real money that companies have borrowed to avoid shutting down, to prevent bankruptcy, to keep staff and keep the business running. And it needs to be paid back," acknowledged Maidla.

Before the coronavirus pandemic in 2019, when tourism was flourishing, the entire sector's profit was €34 million. It may take several good years before the damage is fully recouped.

However, Finns traveling to Estonia are bursting with positivity, still finding prices here nearly half as cheap.

"For instance, a pack of cigarettes – ten euros in Finland, but five euros in Estonia. Food is cheaper, restaurants are cheaper. Everything is cheaper. Cheese is also cheaper," said Jani.

"I think the prices here are still very reasonable, and the atmosphere is very different. A short two-day break and you're refreshed. You feel like a new person," said Janne.

This week also marks the start of the cruise season. Before the coronavirus, Port of Tallinn would host about 300 ships a year, but this year the number is expected to be around one hundred.

According to Statistics Estonia, about 225,000 tourists stayed in Estonian accommodation establishments this February. This is a 1 percent increase from last year, but it still falls slightly below the numbers from February 2020, just before the pandemic.

This time, around 118,000 of the guests were domestic and 107,000 were foreign.

Looking back to 2019, the peaks of the summer months and the winter lows are evident, with a sharp drop in 2020 from which the tourism sector has not fully recovered. Before the pandemic, foreign tourists made up the majority of visitors to accommodation establishments, but during the pandemic, the roles reversed and the sector was sustained by domestic tourists. Now, the number of domestic tourists is no longer increasing and may even be slightly decreasing, while foreign tourists have not returned to the same extent as previously.

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