If the number of births remains at its current level in the second half of this year, the total number of births in 2024 will fall below last year's already record low of 10,949 births, Statistics Estonia leading analyst Erik Loik told ERR.

According to Ministry of the Interior figures, a total of 801 births were registered at vital statistics offices in Estonia this June, including 412 girls and 389 boys. Compared with last June's 915, this total had dropped by more than 100 babies – and Statistics Estonia is forecasting this downward trend to continue through the end of 2024.

Births registered in June included 13 sets of twins, including one set of boys, eight sets of girls and four boy-girl sets of twins.

The highest number of births, 256, were registered in Tallinn, which was followed by Harju County with 118 and Tartu County with 109 births. The lowest number of births was registered in Hiiumaa, where just five babies were born in June.

Loik highlighted that the population of childbearing age has the greatest impact on the number of births, as young families are concentrated primarily in Harju and Tartu counties – which include the cities of Tallinn and Tartu. He also added that according to population projections, over the next 25 years, the population is set to decline the most in Ida-Viru, Jõgeva and Hiiu counties.

Fewer marriages than in recent years

This June, a total of 607 marriages and 213 divorces were registered in Estonia, down from 661 marriages and up from 180 divorces on year, respectively.

Loik commented that monthly marriage statistics are difficult to interpret, as much depends, for example, on whether a given month includes some "magical" date or has four or five weekends.

He added that slightly fewer marriages have been registered in the first five months of 2024 than during the same period last year or the year before, but more than in 2020 and 2021, when the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the registration of marriages and may have led to postponed weddings in subsequent years.

The analyst couldn't predict the number of divorces, but did note that divorce numbers in the first five months of this year have been on par with those of the previous couple of years.

The number of registered deaths has fallen this year as well, with 1,174 deaths recorded last month, down from 1,292 in June 2023. Loik noted that according to preliminary data, a total of 7,975 people have died in the first half of 2024, around as many as in the same period last year.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!