According to the forecast, by 2085, the life expectancy for men in Estonia is projected to be 85.3 years, and for women, it will be 90.9 years. The natural population increase is expected to remain negative.

The population forecast was developed with the guidance of Estonian demographers Tiit Tammaru (University of Tartu), Allan Puur (Tallinn University), Alis Tammur (Ministry of Social Affairs) and Ene-Margit Tiit (Statistics Estonia).

As of the beginning of 2024, there were 1,374,687 people living in Estonia, according to Statistics Estonia. In 2023, 10,949 people were born, and 16,002 people died, resulting in a historically low birth rate and a negative natural population increase. However, the population grew due to immigration.

In 2023, 26,399 people arrived in Estonia, while 12,543 people emigrated.

Last year, 10,949 children were born, which is 697 fewer than the previous year. This marks the new lowest birth rate in the history of Estonia's population statistics. There were fewer births of first, second and third children. First children accounted for 40 percent of all births, second children 34 percent and third children 18 percent.

The average age of mothers giving birth last year was 31 years, with first-time mothers averaging 29 years.

"Healthy population age structure more important"

"A large population is not the goal; the important thing is that the age composition of the population is healthy and sustainable. For this, the birth rate and the proportion of people under 20 years old in the population need to increase. There's a spiral effect in birth rates: if few children are born today, few children will be born in 30 and 60 years," said Terje Trasberg, population statistics researcher for Statistics Estonia, when presenting the results of the population forecast.

According to the current forecast, the population is aging: by 2085, 50 percent of the population will be of working age. By 2085, the average age of the population will have risen to 48.6 years. "While today 214 people in Estonia are over 100 years old, by 2085 there will be over 2,000," Trasberg said.

Trasberg noted that no European country has a healthy population pyramid: "The proportion of older people is increasing, and the pyramid has relatively straight sides."

"For the past seven years, Estonia's population has been growing, in recent years by as much as 3 percent annually, which is a significant increase. This growth has been driven by immigration."

According to Trasberg, immigration has changed the ethnic composition of Estonia: 22 percent of the population is of Russian nationality, 68 percent Estonian, 5 percent Ukrainian, and 5 percent other nationalities. "The migration balance was over 4,000 even before 2022, meaning that 4,000 more people arrived in Estonia than left," Trasberg said.

"Currently, 20 percent of Estonia's population is under 20 years old. The working-age population is 60 percent," Trasberg added.

Estonia's fertility rate is 1.31, and the birth rate has been the lowest in the history of statistics for the past two years. At the same time, life expectancy is increasing: it is 79 years, which is still three years less than the European average.

If by 2085, Estonia's population falls to 1.2 million, it will be the same population as in 1960. "The highest population was in 1990, at over 1.5 million," said Trasberg.

Commenting on the forecast, Trasberg said that Estonian society can still influence the outcome of the forecast, but it is also affected by unexpected events. "The 2019 forecast projected an even smaller population because the increase in immigration was not anticipated," said Trasberg.

Population would plummet without migration

Presenting different scenarios of the population forecast, Trasberg said that without considering migration, Estonia's population would rapidly decline to around one million.

"Today's migration situation is not typical: there are over 34,000 war refugees in Estonia. Depending on when the war ends, partial return migration will begin, lasting ten years. Initially, more people will leave, and later fewer, but in total, about half will leave Estonia," Trasberg said.

Currently, the age composition of migration is different from usual: immigrants are more often middle-aged and male.

According to the main scenario, Estonia's birth rate will remain between 11,000 and 13,000, but it could drop to 10,000.

Compared to previous forecasts, the current estimate for the migration balance is higher, but lower for birth rates. "The natural population increase is projected to remain negative, and immigration alone is not enough to increase the population," Trasberg said.

"A forecast is not a prediction of the future but shows how different components change. It has been challenging to compile the forecast because we have seen crises affecting the population in recent years: COVID-19 increased mortality, and the war in Ukraine raised the number of war refugee immigrants," said Hede Sinisaar, head of the analysis and statistics department at the Ministry of Social Affairs.

"The population size is not the only important indicator; it's crucial to look at the changes in the population structure. The scenarios show that we cannot influence individual components alone but must address all three components: migration, birth rate and mortality," Sinisaar said.

Trasberg noted that while previous forecasts did not account for nationality because immigration was not as significant, the increase in recent years has created a need for future population forecasts to include ethnic composition.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!