Russia has shifted its economy onto a wartime footing and is capable of producing and repairing tanks, armored vehicles, and ammunition in ever-increasing quantities despite heavy losses in Ukraine, the minister said in a statement.

He stressed that there is no "immediate military threat" to the Baltic states in the "coming years".

"However, if Russia's war against Ukraine ends in any way other than a complete defeat for Russia, it will significantly worsen regional security, as the capabilities currently directed against Ukraine will then pose a direct threat to NATO. Concurrently with the war in Ukraine, Russia continues to implement reforms in its armed forces, aiming to increase the size of the armed forces to 1.5 million military personnel by the end of 2026," Pevkur said. 

At the #NorthernGroup meeting, DefMin @HPevkur highlighted rising aggression in & the Nordic region. He urged all Allies to enhance their defence capabilities to counter this threat, starting w/ increasing defence spending to at least 2.5 percent of GDP @Lithuanian_MoD pic.twitter.com/mzEyy4VjmM

— MoD Estonia (@MoD_Estonia) May 23, 2024

Estonia wants allies to commit to spending a minimum of 2.5 percent of GDP on defense, up from the current 2 percent. The minister said the Russian threat is "long-term and existential".

Members also discussed supporting Ukraine, and Pevkur encouraged allies to allocate 0.25 percent of their GDP to cause over the next four years, as Estonia has done.

The Northern Group is a defense cooperation format that brings together 12 Western and North Sea countries - Estonia, the Netherlands, Iceland, Lithuania, Latvia, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Germany, Finland, Denmark, and the United Kingdom.

It focuses on common issues within NATO, EU and regional security. The format was established in 2010 and is led by the United Kingdom.

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