On Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense published a document presenting plans to change its maritime borders unilaterally. Russia has changed the geographical coordinates of the points that define the baselines from which the width of the Russian territorial sea and the adjacent zone along the coast and islands is measured.

Lott, a lecturer at the University of Tartu, said Russia's sea border, or the baseline system, has remained unchanged since 1985 when it was the maritime border of the Soviet Union. After the USSR's collapse, it is no longer adequate.

International maritime borders and economic zones cannot be changed unilaterally as they are established by international agreements. However, Lott said, a country can specify its straight baselines so that it does not increase its area at the expense of any other country.

"Drawing these baselines beyond the coastline, for example, does not in any way change the maritime boundary between the two countries as defined in their international agreement," the expert said.

As Russia's current maritime border regulation needs updating, Lott believes clarifying the border is welcome and in Estonia's interests.

"A feasible solution for the introduction of a system of straight baselines in the Gulf of Finland would be to follow the same line that, according to media reports, has now been proposed by Russia. So that it would run from the Finnish-Russian border, across the Gogland (Suursaari) to Rodsher (Ruuskeri), and from Rodsher on to the Malyi Tjuters (Säyvö). From there, it would connect to Vigrund and then end in the Gulf of Finland at the Narva River," said Lott.

He said there is no reason to believe the adjustment of Russia's straight baselines would affect the economic zone agreed upon by Finland and the Soviet Union.

"Concerning the maritime areas of the Gulf of Finland, it is precisely bilateral agreements that define the rear border, which is the extent of Russian maritime areas," he said.

"Russia is playing in its own puddle, which it has the right to do under international maritime law. Most importantly, it is actually this same adjustment of baselines that is in Estonia's interests and also Finland's."

The researcher continued: "The current straight baselines, which date back to 1985, whistles, among other things, at the current situation where the Baltic States are supposedly independent and we are not part of Russia's baseline system."

Russia defining its maritime border will reduce gray areas and increase legal clarity in the Baltic Sea, which is in everyone's interest, Lott said.

"The situation, where the straight baselines were interrupted in the middle of the sea, also meant that it was unclear exactly which maritime zones Russia had in the Gulf of Finland," he added.

Politicians see provocation

Some Estonian and international politicians do not seem to agree with Lott though.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) said this cannot be excluded as a form of Russian hybrid activity. "I can't rule out that the report is an attempt to sow confusion but we are keeping a cool head," he wrote on social media.

#Estonia is in close contact with #Finland & #Lithuania about Russia's alleged plans to shift borders in the Baltic Sea. We expect their steps to be in line with international law.

I can't rule out that the report is an attempt to sow confusion but we are keeping a cool head.

— Margus Tsahkna (@Tsahkna) May 22, 2024

Defense expert Rainer Saks (Parempoolsed) called the move a provocation.

Chairman of the Riigikogu's Foreign Affairs Committee Marko Mihkelson (Reform) said Russia is "testing NATO's readiness to defend itself".

With such steps, Russia is testing NATO's readiness to defend itself. So far, he has received a signal that NATO does not dare to quarrel with Russia. Be it helping Ukraine at half strength and banning their use of weapons, ... 1/ https://t.co/al2l8qQWq1

— Marko Mihkelson (@markomihkelson) May 22, 2024

Lithuania's foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said Russia is "attempting to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt about their intentions in the Baltic Sea". He called for an "appropriately firm response".

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Finland would remain calm and that Finnish authorities are investigating reports.

Pevkur: We are taking this very calmly

Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said Russia is testing NATO but that Estonia is reacting "calmly".

"Russia is testing us on how we react on that," he said at a press conference after a scheduled meeting of the Baltic defense ministers in Lithuania on Wednesday afternoon.

"As we can see every one of you [the reporters present] wants to know what we will do. We will not jump into the fire. We are taking this very calmly, we will find out all the information about that, and as we have already found out Russia is already backing off," he said, referring to the fact the document has now been removed from the internet.

He said it was "surprising" and "interesting" that only a few media outlets had reported the move in Russia.

"So every time you see something, especially, from the Russian media, my advice is very simple – please be careful because normally it is only fake news or a deliberate psyop [psychological operations]," he told the press conference.

The minister also said he saw "different aspects" as to why Russia would do this.

"The first is purely theoretical. Russia cannot do that when you take the international maritime law [into consideration]. Secondly, the theoretical part has never been a problem for Russia, they have never obeyed international law, which is what we also see at the moment in Ukraine. So, they are just doing whatever they want, not looking at international law. So, this is once again proof that they do not care about international law," Pevkur said.

The press conference can be watched below.

This article was updated to add quotes from Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur.

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