A global leader is needed to initiate a process that forces Russia to abandon its aggression, Saks added.

Saks was speaking to Vikerraadio's Vikerhommik" morning show, whose host asked Saks if he agreed with EKRE MP and reserve army officer Leo Kunnas's assertion that the situation on the front lines is not critical for Ukraine at any location.

According to Saks, Kunnas has precisely summarized the situation, so his assessment can be agreed upon. "The reason might be that, despite the Russian army's very active offensive operations starting from October last year, they have not been able to achieve any significant breakthroughs, and have not advanced considerably," he said.

He added that, while the Russian army has in places made advances on the front of up to ten kilometers, this represents minimal progress and certainly does not match with the Russian leadership's expectations, or those of its military commanders

Saks said right now it is hard to predict foresee whether the situation on the front line will become less or more challenging for the Ukrainians.

He noted that if Russia wants to press home a major offensive, they will need to conduct further mobilization.

He said: "Since spring, Russia has clearly had this option on the table that if they want to continue a major offensive and capture the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, they would need to bring mobilization."

"They have not done this so far, because the Russian leader does not want to take that step. It would pose a significant political risk for him," Saks went on.

According to Saks, Ukraine is engaged in a war of attrition.

He said: "Ukraine is trying to exhaust the Russian forces as far as possible, aware that the other side has a political red line which they do not want to cross."

"This allows for a combination of strategies. With one, Russia wants to quickly capture large territories in Ukraine, but on the other hand, they do not want to carry out a mobilization. So this provides the chance for the Ukrainians to wear down the Russian forces," he continued.

Saks added that Ukraine is not receiving enough weaponry, while the aid which is promised is not reaching Ukraine quickly enough. In turn this serves to prolong the war.

According to Saks, any peace settlement depends solely on Ukraine and Russia.

"No one else can directly force them into a peace, and, in fact, forcing one side unilaterally cannot initiate a peace process," Saks said.

Saks added that since Russia initiated the aggression, efforts should be focused on containing the aggressor and "not on containing Ukraine, as it sometimes seems that some would wish to do – the Prime Minister of Hungary and some others have expressed such sentiments, while even the President of the People's Republic of China has nudged the topic in that direction."

Saks pointed out that, in his opinion, the problem lies with Ukraine's supporters, led by the U.S., not having been able to create an international process which pressures Russia towards peace. "We could be talking about a just peace process, but this, in my view, is what is lacking. It instead reveals the insufficient cooperation between the U.S. administration and various European leaders."

"I would say that there is no clear strategic vision," he added.

The host then asked Saks to what extent China's support for Russia influences the choices made by the U.S.

Saks responded: "Of course, everything has its impact. For the U.S., this is not an isolated event, but part of a global process, and it is the same for China. Russia is also trying to isolate the Ukraine issue from other international processes, but inevitably, it remains part of the broader picture."

"I would argue that at the start of the war, China had to choose whether to position itself as a global leader and peacemaker, genuinely attempting to resolve the conflict and thus gaining international prestige, or to take an ideological stance against the U.S."

"China made its choice and opted to support Russia," Saks went on.

"This wasn't just because they wanted Russia to emerge triumphant in the war, but rather to ensure that Russia did not lose. It was fundamentally an ideological choice against the U.S. In this situation, it is exceedingly difficult to speak of any normal peace process," Saks continued.

The host asked if the recent NATO summit and the assassination attempt on Trump could have long-term implications for Ukraine.

"Certainly, it depends on the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections and how the U.S. will continue its policy towards Ukraine. Let's remember that the current administration has been quite clumsy and sometimes inept – it couldn't keep the aid process to Ukraine running smoothly for half a year. But this lull allowed Russia to significantly broaden its offensive," Saks said.

The expert added that if those skeptical of aiding Ukraine and who have opposed it come to power in the U.S., it will be even harder for Ukraine to convince Russia that it has sufficient support to withstand Russia's advances for a long time

The host asked if reports of Ukrainian soldiers becoming fatigued and deserting were true and represented bad news as a result

"Such cases have been happening from the outset," Saks said.

"It is a vast nation, and all kinds of people end up on the front line. I wouldn't over-dramatize this. Desertion does take place, plus it's very common on the Russian side too. It is an inevitable byproduct of major armies at war. This is an unavoidable side effect," he continued.

According to Saks, the most pressing issue ahead remains for Western countries to come together and initiate a process that is unequivocally clear to Russia. "Supporting Ukraine must entail significant losses for Russia, showing the Russian military that they have no hope of success on the battlefield. For as long as an understanding of that does not reach the Russian leadership, the war will not end,."

Saks noted that as long as the Russian president believes that military success is possible, he will continue to strive to that end.

"There is nothing to be done – elections happen in one country or another, but this cannot be a reason for Western countries to fail to find a consensus on this fundamental issues. This serves to demonstrate the weakness of the western nations, and so motivates Russia," he said

According to Saks, despite everything, western unity still holds firm. "There hasn't been a complete collapse or a search for new and/or entirely unrealistic policies, and no significant players have dropped out of the coalition."

However, in the same sentence, Saks noted that he does not see any strategic initiative coming from the west, either. "This is what is missing. Perhaps during the first three years of the war this wasn't so crucial because the idea then was that the war would be a short one. But now we need a global leadership role to start building a process which would force Russia to abandon its major aggressions."

He noted that while decisions are being made, they are not keeping the process afloat or leading it to a faster, more positive outcome

Finally, the "Vikerhommik" host asked Saks if Kaja Kallas' likely new high-ranking position in Europe, effectively the EU's foreign minister, would bring her opportunities to steer the situation in the right direction.

On this, Saks said: "She could certainly make her influence known, but we must realize from the outset that the EU member states have not delegated that much decision-making power to the position Kaja Kallas is taking on."

"It is indeed an important, high-level position with significant influence over the broader foreign policy narrative. However, the idea that Kaja Kallas would start organizing and deciding things unilaterally – the member states will definitely not allow for that."

"Foreign and security policies have not been harmonized and delegated to Europe, though efforts are being made to create this. Kaja Kallas could be a consensus builder in Europe. At best, she could also be a leader, but she is certainly not one who will direct foreign policy via some sort of apparatus," Saks concluded.

Rainer Saks is a former foreign ministry secretary general, and ran for the Parempoolsed party at last month's European elections.

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