Currently, both SDE and Eesti 200 have three ministerial positions each, per the coalition agreement signed in April 2023.

However, according to Sikkut, SDE's stance in the coalition negotiations has been that the changes in the number of Riigikogu seats, and therefore votes, should be reflected in the distribution of ministerial positions.

Sikkut, who is also SDE's deputy chair, said: "Indeed, the number of Riigikogu votes has shifted over the last year and three months since the elections.

"The Social Democrats' expectation was that the distribution of positions in the government should reflect the current situation we are negotiating," Sikkut went on.

"My understanding is that an agreement can be reached under the condition that SDE receives an additional ministerial position. This agreement was made between the party leaders. My understanding is that SDE will gain an additional position, but we will discuss the specific portfolios and the individuals holding them tomorrow (Friday – ed.)," the minister went on.

Sikkut did not mention whether she would retain her portfolio as health minister, or take up another ministerial position.

However, Eesti 200 chair and current Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna denied that such an agreement had been reached in the negotiations to date.

Tsahkna said: "Whether someone gains additional ministerial positions or not, and what portfolios and distributions are, well none of that has been agreed upon yet. /.../ I believe we will reach agreement. /.../ But there is no agreement as of yet:"

When asked if Eesti 200 would have to forgo a post if SDE were to gain an additional ministerial post, Tsahkna responded that "Eesti 200 does not have to give up anything."

"For the government to disburse its duties, we should primarily consider who can best lead their issues, politically. I would also say that there are other options and we can come up with surprising solutions to achieve our goals. I understand SDE's view /.../ but the question is what the practically workable solution is," he went on.

The SDE, Eesti 200 and Reform Party boards are to meet from 2 p.m. Friday to approve the coalition agreement and the composition of the government.

This means it can be expected that the text of the agreement and the composition of the government will be announced by Friday evening.

Kristen Michal (Reform), prime ministerial candidate, said Thursday that the agreement should be ready by or on Friday, July 19.

Since Michal is currently climate minister, he would have to vacate that position if he became head of government, meaning another minister would need to be found.

SDE's current three ministers are Lauri Läänemets (interior), Piret Hartman (regional affairs) plus Sikkut. Eesti 200's up to now have been Kristina Kallas (education), Tiit Riisalo (IT and foreign trade) plus Tsahkna as foreign minister. Reform has had a further five ministers, plus the prime minister.

When the current Reform-SDE-Eesti 200 coalition entered office in April 2023, the dynamics were slightly different.

SDE was the smallest party, and Eesti 200 second largest with 14 seats.

However, while Eesti 200 has lost a seat since then, SDE gained five, mainly thanks to the exodus of Center Party leading MPs earlier on this year.

Though the three parties will remain in office, SDE will now be the second party by number of MPs, and the unwritten rule Sikkut noted above tends to be that ministerial portfolios need to be doled out in proportion to size.

On the other hand, there is only one seat between Eesti 200 and SDE now, compared with a difference of five seats in April 2023, yet the two parties obtained the same number of ministers – three apiece.

The change has also given SDE more bargaining clout on its key issues such as tax hikes.

Reform has also gained one seat since April 2023 and now has 38 MPs at the 101-seat Riigikogu.

Riigikogu to hold extraordinary session on Monday

An extraordinary session will be held at the Riigikogu, currently on its summer break, on Monday at 11 a.m., to vote on the renewed Reform-Eesti 200-SDE coalition which, given the total number of votes that alignment has – 65 mandates – the vote is likely to pass.

If so, President Alar Karis could appoint the new government as early as Monday afternoon, for a Tuesday morning swearing-in.

The change in government is constitutionally necessitated by Kaja Kallas' resignation as prime minister at the start of the week, to concentrate on her bid to be the next EU foreign affairs minister.

Kallas herself expressed a desire that the switchover take place as swiftly as possible.

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