The front lines in Ukraine have not seen significant changes for some time. Russian forces are advancing slowly and with heavy losses, sometimes attempting larger offensives, though unsuccessfully so far. As a result, there are frequent rumors about Ukrainian units being encircled. Such rumors surfaced again last week, but there has been little truth to them, Marek Kohv told ERR.

"The talk of encirclement has been ongoing since spring, but in reality, no Ukrainian unit has been completely surrounded by Russian forces," Kohv stated.

Furthermore, not every meter captured by Russia remains under their control.

"Just because Russian units plant a flag somewhere doesn't mean they have fully seized the area. It could be retaken by the Ukrainians in the following days," Kohv explained.

There is no single reason why Russia can still advance. Ukraine often lacks sufficient ammunition and air defense, which must be used to protect both the front lines and cities. Additionally, Ukrainian units are not always fully manned.

"All of this together presents a complex problem that is difficult for Ukrainians to resolve on their own. Significant support must come from the West. However, what the Ukrainians can do is to continue staffing their units," Kohv noted.

According to Kohv, Ukraine's goal this year has been to hold the front lines. There might be an opportunity for a counteroffensive in late autumn when the ground is still passable. However, he believes the situation is more likely to change next year.

"It seems to me that the window of opportunity for Russia, which they had at the start of the summer when Ukraine lacked sufficient Western aid and faced staffing issues, is closing. Now we see that next year, Europe's and the broader Western defense industries are catching up with Russia. If Ukraine can hold the front lines this year, it could set the stage for a potential counteroffensive next year," Kohv said.

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