Expert: Effectiveness of F-16s in Ukraine depends on numbers supplied

The extent to which the reported imminent arrival of F-16 Fighting Falcons in Ukraine make an impact in that country's defense against the ongoing Russian invasion depends significantly on numbers of planes Ukraine receives, security expert Indrek Kannik said Wednesday.
Speaking to "Aktuaalne kaamera," Kannik, who is head of think tank the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), said: "If the initial number of jets is between 10 and 20, then that will naturally be less significant assistance compared with getting 40, 50 or 60 jets right away."
"The Ukrainians themselves have said that they need over 100 fighter jets to achieve parity in the air, with Russia. It is likely that they will attain this number, but definitely not before next year," Kannik went on.
The F-16 is a multirole fighter, so what of their likely role in the skies over Ukraine?
"I believe the fighter jets will have multiple functions," Kannik said.

"One of the most important roles for the jets will definitely be to repel Russian strike aircraft, which are currently causing significant damage to Ukraine's front lines thanks to their glide bombs," Kannik added.
Another security expert, Rainer Saks, noted with interest how, in June this year, the arrival of F-16s in Ukraine was discussed with certainty, yet more recently, the focus has shifted to problems associated with the same process.
Saks, a former foreign ministry secretary general, said: "The preparation of pilots and related issues have not progressed as quickly as needed. Additionally, organizing the logistics and maintenance of these aircraft in Ukraine has likely not moved forward at the desired pace. Furthermore, Russia's airstrikes may have also slowed down this process."
On the latter point, Russian forces are likely to have in mind some of the F-16's strengths.
"The reason Russia sees the F-16 as a problem is mainly down to the fact that the radar on the standard or typical equipment used by the F-16 allow them to see farther than the radar on Russian aircraft do. This capability enables F-16 jets on missions in Ukraine to engage Russian aircraft from a greater distance than Russian jets can see them from," Saks outlined.

Recent reports in the international media suggested that the U.S. plans to equip the F-16 jets given to Ukraine with state-of-the-art weaponry. According to some experts, this has been common knowledge in military circles for some time already, since not having armaments would nullify the F-16s strategic value.
Indrek Kannik said the arrival of the F-16s and any other fighter jets in Ukraine could theoretically kick-start a peace process.
However, this is unlikely build any serious momentum ahead of the U.S. presidential elections in November, Saks added.
Kannik and Saks were talking to "Aktuaalne kaamera."
While the F-16s arrival is not being seen by experts as heralding a turning point on the battlefield, the long talked-about development would represent a beefing up of Ukraine's air capabilities.

Up to now, the country's air force had relied on Russian-made planes such as the MiG-29.
While Kyiv is yet to confirm the recent reports, Bloomberg has, citing sources, stated deadline for the transfer of F-16s was late July, adding Ukraine received "a small number" of the planes by that time.
It is expected to receive at least 79 F-16s from several European nations who operate the plane, namely the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Norway, over the "coming years."
This will require the training up of Ukrainian pilots and ground crew, a process reportedly already underway for several months now.
The General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon is an American single-engine supersonic multirole fighter aircraft which first entered service in the 1970s and whose unusual selling points include a frameless bubble canopy for enhanced cockpit visibility. It is armed with an internal 20mm x 102mm M61 Vulcan cannon as standard, and 11 hardpoints – ie. mounting points for weaponry.
F-16s operated by allied air forces have been based on rotation at Ämari Air Base in Estonia.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera,' reporter Maria-Ann Rohemäe.