Experts: Spike in Russian assaults not foretaste of Ukraine front line breakthrough
The principal concentration of Russian forces in Ukraine remains the Donetsk oblast, where additional Russian units are expected in the coming weeks, Indrek Kannik, Director of the International Centre for Defense and Security (ICDS) said.
This could lead to further escalation of the intensity of the fighting, the Ministry of Defense has added.
Peeter Kuimet, head of the ministry's international cooperation department told "Aktuaalne kaamera": "Compared with the previous weeks, the intensity of attacks has gone up slightly, with around 140 strikes along the entire front line."
"This intensity is likely to keep up, while currently the initiative lies in the hands of the Russian armed forces," he went on.
"However, it is unlikely to lead to any major breakthroughs at the strategic level, though there might be minor advances at the tactical level," Kuimet added.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had also expressed concern over Russian advances, in the direction of Pokrovsk, Donetsk oblast.
Indrek Kannik said that Russian forces are indeed gradually moving forward in that zone, but that this is happening across a narrow sector and currently does not pose any serious threat of a breakthrough.
"Most likely there was an uncoordinated retreat a couple of weeks ago, and they are still dealing with the consequences of that. The issue is that Ukrainian defensive positions are being hit by glide bombs, leaving nothing to defend, which forces the retreat," Kannik told "Aktuaalne kaamera."
The long-awaited arrival of an unspecified number of General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon multi-role fighters in Ukraine could help the Ukrainians combat the Russians in the air.
This could include Ukraine deploying its own glide bombs from afar, Kannik said, though much hinges on the number of planes Ukraine receives and how they are armed.
This is despite the fact that, whereas during the two world wars aircraft would become obsolete within the space of a couple of years, the F-16 is around a half-century old now.
Former air force commander Col. Jaak Tarien said. "While the F-16 was produced in the late 1970s and its hardware, such as the engine and airframe, has not changed significantly, the electronics—which determine a modern aircraft's success—have gone through multiple generations and versions.
"We do not have precise information on what Ukraine will be getting; this information lack is intentional; to keep Russia in a state of uncertainty," Tarien added.
Indrek Kannik said: "In summary, the impact of the F-16s should be that they can push Russian attack aircraft further away, making it more difficult for them to use glide bomb."
Russian forces this week have been focusing their heaviest assaults near Ukraine's strategic city of Pokrovsk, a transport hub with a pre-war population of 61,000 which lies on a supply route to other embattled Ukrainian-held front line towns such as Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka.
The arrival of F-16 Fighting Falcons in Ukraine, if not representing a turning point, would represent a beefing up of Ukraine's air capabilities – which up to now had mostly relied on Russian-made planes such as the MiG-29.
Figures reported in the media suggest Ukraine could expect around 80 F-16s over the next few years, from several European allied nations, while the relevant training for pilots and support personnel is already underway.
An interactive map of the Ukraine front updated in real time is here.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Merili Nael
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera,' reporter Mart Linnart.