Kaja Kallas' road to becoming the best-known Estonian
Even though the official European Parliament hearing isn't until early October, Kaja Kallas will become the European Union's high representative for foreign and security policy. What is the position all about and what does it mean for Estonia?
Former Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform Party) is fast becoming the best-known Estonian, as she will be appointed high representative of the EU for foreign and security policy in the coming months, meaning that she will regularly sit down with the most important people in the world and appear in the international press.
But how did the 47-year-old Estonian land the position, what does the office entail and what will really happen next?
"I believe she is among the best-known people already now, talking about politicians. While it is an influential office and no mistake, we should first and foremost see it as an opportunity for Estonia," said Gerrit Mäesalu, head of the Prime Minister's Office.
"It's the highest position [an Estonian] has landed, and I fear it will also remain that," said Kaja Kallas' father, Siim Kallas.
However, critics say that Estonia paid a high price for the posting as [Kaja Kallas'] government largely refrained from taking impactful decisions in its final year.
"Putting the country on standby in terms of security and the economy has been a major and objective problem, for which a high price has been paid in social stress," said Urmas Reinsalu, chairman of the opposition Isamaa party.
"She has been the best-loved and most-hated politician in Estonian society. She has people polarized in either camp," said Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200).
Kaja Kallas, who graduated from the University of Tartu Law Faculty and obtained her master's degree at Estonian Business School (EBS) entered politics in 2011, after spending a decade working as an attorney. She got over 7,000 votes her first election and was elected to the Riigikogu.
After a term as a member of the European Parliament, Kallas was elected the head of the Reform Party in 2018 and was the most popular politician at the 2019 general elections by a mile, after which the Estonian press knew the country would soon get its first female prime minister. However, Center's Jüri Ratas managed to pull a fast one on Kallas through crafty political maneuvering and still send the squirrels (the Reform Party's mascot – ed.) to the opposition.
Kallas' time came when the Porto Franco scandal and criminal investigation led to Jüri Ratas' resignation as prime minister. Kallas and the Center Party's Mailis Reps formed the new government.
Next came the coronavirus, energy crisis and the Ukraine war, while Kallas held on to the prime minister's chair, swapping coalition partners on three occasions. The Ukraine crisis certainly contributed to Kallas becoming an authority figure abroad. One breakthrough happened in the summer of 2021 when Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron wanted to invite Vladimir Putin to an EU summit, while the prime minister of tiny Estonia was the only head of government to oppose it.
"Kaja called me late at nigh and said that while she had probably made a mess, she was quite pleased with herself. She was worried she might have ruined relations with Germany. But Orban and everyone else gave her plenty of credit," Siim Kallas recalled.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, many major countries' leaders publicly admitted that Kallas had been right. She routinely gave interviews to the world's top journalists, received awards and earned the title "Iron Lady."
The Estonian politician's stock was flying so high that she was allegedly even considered for the post of NATO secretary general for a time in 2022.
Security topics were largely what allowed Kallas to dominate the 2023 general elections and secure 37 seats for the Reform Party (in Estonia's 100-seat parliament – ed.). While she was enjoying success abroad, her domestic resume suffered from Kallas' public fights with former Reform PM Andrus Ansip as well as President Alar Karis, after which came the so-called eastern transports scandal where it turned out a company with ties to the prime minister's husband had continued doing business with Russia, while Kallas was going around promoting cutting ties with the country.
"She took it hard, and those were difficult times. I'm sure it was hard to survive," Siim Kallas said.
"People did not get answers, and society's moral position differed completely from her subjective treatment. This conflict caused a huge crisis of trust in society," Urmas Reinsalu noted.
Many found the way Kallas reacted to the scandal unfortunate, which situation was not helped by looming tax hikes no one had mentioned before the elections.
"Her style was never to give an inch in terms of where she stood. While we had a lot of talkative people in the [Riigikogu] group, it wasn't long until they were no longer allowed to speak, because it was Kaja who said how things would be," noted Siim Kallas.
"For me, the main problem with her has been lack of dialogue or empathy," Reinsalu remarked.
"As a leader, I believe she values expert knowledge and facts. She does not make decisions based on political emotion or populist currents and rather remains true to what's sensible. You can't get far with Kaja, talking about gut feeling," Gerrit Mäesalu said.
So, while Kallas was paid a lot of attention and praised abroad, she took flak from the media at home. The criticism only became louder when the press and her fellow politicians started getting the feeling that the prime minister was paying less attention to her duties and more to landing a high-profile foreign office.
In hindsight, even some of Kallas' closest colleagues, like Gerrit Mäesalu, claim that the prime minister kept her ambitions to herself. Her wishes were known to only a few people, like her father and veteran Estonian politician Siim Kallas.
"It came up a long time ago. There was no offer, but I think it came up a year ago," Siim Kallas said.
While the critics interpreted Kallas' every foreign trip or interview as a covert campaign, those close to her claim no real effort was made as the decision is up to European leaders in the end.
"I believe it was a good thing too. Had we gone door to door, saying we have a solid candidate, we would soon have been told, 'yes, we've heard from you already,'" Siim Kallas suggested.
"She was on newspaper covers. You board a plane and people start taking photos because they recognize the person on the cover who had given an interview. We often gave interviews in advance or met with representatives of the press in Estonia before traveling to a foreign country. But these efforts were aimed at making Estonia visible, not at landing the post. We never planned for it or followed such calculations," Mäesalu said.
While the Reform Party did not do well and lost a seat at the June European Parliament elections, the Europe-wide results gave Ursula von der Leyen a chance to continue as European Commission president. Because the position of high representative for foreign and security policy was to go to the liberals, represented by French President Emmanuel Macron, many believed it was his endorsement that guaranteed Kallas will assume the highest political office an Estonian has ever held.
"It follows a lot of work done by Kaja Kallas herself. A well-known Estonian politician said at the start of the summer, or in late spring, that an Estonian landing the post might happen once every 400 years. It is happening now," said Aivo Orav, Estonia's EU ambassador in 2020-2204.
"It's simplest put by saying that Kaja Kallas will become the European Union's foreign minister tasked with coordinating 27 member state foreign ministers. It is a challenging job to say the least," Margus Tsahkna remarked.
"The office was created with the 2009 Lisbon Treaty and, figuratively speaking, in response to Henry Kissinger suggesting that he would like a single phone number when calling Europe. That is when we got a high foreign affairs representative and Commission vide president, someone who only deals with foreign policy and would be the voice of the EU in terms of what it is doing in the world," Orav said.
Kallas' mission will not be easy
This so-called phone number has in the past been held by Catherine Ashton, Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell, whose performances in terms of visibility and getting the job done have varied greatly. Even though Kallas' official hearing isn't until October and appointment toward the year's end, experts say these are mere formalities. But the mission of the 47-year-old mother of one will not be easy, as the world finds itself in the most difficult geopolitical situation since the Cold War, meaning that Kallas will have to address problems ranging from Ukraine to Taiwan, from human trafficking to monkeypox.
"She'll be landing somewhere there's no runway, and there will be sparks and wheels flying. It will be a tough job – that much is clear – and not a cushy existence full of stimulating academic debate," Gerrit Mäesalu suggested.
"The post of Europe's foreign minister, as I've referred to it, is among the most complicated offices. There is a massive administrative apparatus behind it, an agency in charge of the entire EU's foreign policy, and we're not just talking about Russia policy – it's Gaza, it's Africa, it's Latin America. It's on a global, massive scale," said Margus Tsahkna.
"Put simply – we need peace. We need peace in the Balkans – this problem, by the way, has not gone anywhere – and we need peace in the region. And we also need to deal with the United States," Siim Kallas said.
"It will not be all cozy and comfortable. Catherine Ashton wrote a book about her term where she describes going out in Brussels and drinking a glass of beer with someone on or just after the day of her appointment, adding that she never got the chance again over the next four years," Aivo Orav said.
Politicians and observers suggest that problems in Europe will not be as high on Kallas' agenda as they have been recently, not to mention Estonia's.
"There is no chance to pursue Estonia's foreign policy there, and she will rather be a common coordinator. But it is to be hoped that her personal character, her courage will not disappear. She wants to affect emphases," Tsahkna said.
"I believe she will remain who she is. It does not amount to not talking to people. You just tell Orban what you think of him. No sycophancy," Siim Kallas said.
"Right now, we're proud and happy she's been given the office. We'll be able to analyze how she did once her term is over. There will be setbacks between now and then, as there will always be someone who dislikes what she says. And we're not talking about the Estonian press here, but global press. Those who do not like what she says, information operations, campaigns and everything else," Orav noted.
The high representative's office, to be headed by Estonia's recent permanent representative to the European Union, Vivian Loonela, will have 12 members, while the European Union External Action Service (EEAS) has 6,500 people all over the world.
The former prime minister refused to be interviewed for this story, as she wants to keep a low profile before her official hearings. One thing is for certain – Kallas is looking at a lot of unpopular choices, and her actions now will determine the size of the letters with which she'll write her name into world history.
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Editor: Marko Tooming, Marcus Turovski