Feasibility and cost questions raised over Estonia's €14-billion renewables plan
Energy experts are uncertain whether Estonia can double its electricity consumption in ten years, as outlined in a freshly published long-term plan, "Aktuaalne kaamera" reported.
Phasing out oil shale electricity and transitioning to a renewables-only basis will cost Estonia just over €14 billion, according to a recently published energy sector development plan.
The same plan assumes that annual electricity consumption will essentially double within a decade.
However, Energy expert Arvi Hamburg considers this unrealistic.
He said: "We have five TWh, meaning about 60 percent, waiting in some sort of queue for industry demand. I really can't imagine why the industry is waiting."
Hamburg was also skeptical about the plan's statement that final electricity price to consumer will be cheaper in 2035, at 15.4 cents per KWh, or €154 per Mwh.
"This is not achievable," Hamburg said.
The reason for this "is that we have started at the wrong end. This means that we have a political decision that by 2030, renewable electricity will be covered by the consumer.
"Now we have developed this plan. Instead of 17.9 cents, I have arrived at somewhere around 18.7-18.8 cents; the price is rising," Hamburg went on.
Meanwhile, Andres Veske, head of the Green Tiger (Rohetiiger) initiative, "Aktuaalne kaamera" that the figure of €14 billion would pertain solely to electricity and heat production.
He said: "At first glance, that €14 billion figure seems somewhat inflated, but if we also take into consideration the financial needs for buildings renovations, an additional €10 billion could easily be found."
The €170/MWh energy price over 30 years as forecast in the plan is too high to attract industry, he added.
Kalev Kallemets, head of Fermi Energia, said producers of emission-free fuels could expand consumption, but the lack of binding EU requirements for green ammonia and methanol production has stalled projects in Sweden and Denmark, potentially affecting similar initiatives in Estonia.
The state's funding share is unclear, with some European funds involved, but most investment will come from consumer contributions, which will ultimately lower electricity costs despite being funded through subsidies, according to Climate Ministry official Rein Vaks.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Marko Tooming
Source: 'Aktuaalne kaamera,' reporter Toomas Pott.
