In late 2024, Finland released a comprehensive defense policy review, referred to in some of our news outlets as a defense strategy. The previous report was issued in 2021, and this new document builds on the analysis of last year's foreign and security policy report by the Finnish government. This is Finland's first defense policy review since joining NATO. I will highlight some key points from the report, leaving the military analysis to experts, but this overview offers an opportunity to compare Estonia's and Finland's defense policies.

The review acknowledges that Finland's security environment is uncertain and difficult to predict, with security conditions potentially deteriorating rapidly. Compared to the 2021 review, the term "war" is used much more frequently. In the previous report, it was mentioned only once, whereas this time it appears more than ten times, in much more specific contexts.

While Finland has previously focused heavily on upgrading its air and naval forces, the emphasis has now shifted to developing ground forces. This includes advancing unmanned and autonomous systems. Changes in the security environment, coupled with NATO membership, have also created a need to increase the size of Finland's defense forces, which will inevitably lead to higher defense expenditures.

Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine is viewed as a continuation of its previous aggressive actions, beginning with the war against Georgia in 2008, followed by the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in Eastern Ukraine in 2014. The risk of the war in Ukraine escalating further is not ruled out.

Russia's actions reflect a broader strategy in which Moscow seeks to assert itself as a major power and expand its sphere of influence through military force. The review identifies Russia as the greatest and most immediate threat to NATO and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region.

The war in Ukraine has also demonstrated that Russia is indifferent to losses and willing to take extreme risks, thereby creating uncertainty in Finland's immediate neighborhood. Russian strategic thinking aims to establish a buffer zone in Europe, stretching from the Arctic to the Baltic and Black Seas and extending to the Mediterranean.

Northern Europe's strategic landscape is undergoing a transformation with Finland and Sweden joining NATO. This has created a unified area extending from the Atlantic to the Arctic and the Baltic Sea, composed exclusively of NATO member states, where defense is now planned and exercised as a whole. In this context, the review also emphasizes the importance of strengthening regional defense capabilities and cooperation.

For instance, Sweden has identified six neighboring countries where its defense forces must be prepared to operate. These countries are Finland, Denmark, Norway, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

The war in Ukraine has highlighted the importance of preventive deterrence, crisis management, rapid response capabilities, robust defense capacity and high defense morale. The report stresses that there is a need to prepare for a prolonged war of attrition. In this context, ensuring societal resilience, securing critical infrastructure and maintaining the ability to rapidly repair damaged infrastructure are key priorities.

The Baltic Sea holds particular importance for Finland. Ensuring the continuation of trade, uninterrupted maritime transport and the protection of underwater infrastructure are critical for national security and the functioning of society.

The review also provides an overview of Finland's defense forces. The Finnish Defense Forces consist of approximately 13,000 career soldiers. Around 20,000 conscripts are trained annually, including about 1,000 women. Although military service is not mandatory for women, increasing their participation is encouraged. One of the reasons for this is the physical condition of conscripts, which is considered subpar, alongside broader demographic trends — an issue that may sound familiar to Estonia as well.

Reservists play a crucial role in Finland's defense. In a potential state of emergency, Finland's trained reserve amounts to approximately 900,000 individuals, of whom 280,000 would be mobilized. Of those, 95 percent would be reservists. The main headquarters and its substructures would account for 30,000 personnel. The navy would have 24,000 personnel, 16 combat vessels and 60 support vessels. The air force would comprise 29,000 personnel with 62 combat aircraft.

The ground forces would number 185,000 personnel in a state of emergency, equipped with 410 different combat vehicles, 850 armored transport vehicles, 800 artillery pieces and 20 helicopters. Additionally, the border guard would contribute 12,000 personnel.

Finland's defense strategy is based on the concept of comprehensive national defense, which means that all sectors of society must support military operations and other defense activities. The domestic defense industry is a key part of this comprehensive approach to national defense and supply security. While Finland's defense industry has so far primarily focused on meeting domestic needs, the report also foresees expanding export opportunities and increasing joint initiatives with allies.

Raising public awareness of national defense and improving young people's physical and mental preparedness is a separate focus area. The review also covers specific issues such as cybersecurity, space defense, information warfare readiness and promoting development and innovation.

Finland emphasizes the importance of strengthening the European Union's defense dimension. In this context, the report highlights the need to increase Europe's strategic autonomy and reduce dangerous dependencies.

A few additional words on Russia: Estonian media has covered the presence of Russian forces near the eastern border. Strengthening the Russian Leningrad Military District is planned by 2026, though this is considered quite ambitious given that the current unit staffing levels are around 60 to 75 percent. However, plans call for a significant increase in military presence.

In December, Russia adopted a decision to increase the total size of its armed forces by 180,000 personnel, bringing it to approximately 2.4 million. In our neighboring regions, there are plans to increase the military presence in Karelia, near Kingisepp and in Pskov. Therefore, defense plans must continue to be updated with these threats in mind.

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