Experts: Russian oil supply disruptions a painful blow to shadow fleet

Ukraine's continued attacks on Russian oil infrastructure demonstrate its ability to carry out actions with global impact which could benefit the country during any future peace negotiations, experts said.
On Wednesday night (January 29), Ukraine's armed forces struck the Andreapol oil pumping station in Russia's Tver region using attack drones. As a result, the Russians shut down the pipeline supplying oil to the Ust-Luga terminal in the Leningrad region, close to the Estonian-Russian border.
U.S. financial news outlet reported Bloomberg that the Ust-Luga port processed approximately 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day in 2024. This is approximately 20 percent of the volume that Russia exports by sea.
Economic expert Raivo Vare said Ust-Luga is a major export port for Russia, handling not only oil but also other goods.
He said no details have been published about the damage to the oil pumping station supplying the port. This makes it difficult to assess how quickly the station can be repaired and oil deliveries can resume.
"When explosions or malfunctions occur, the pumping station is shut down, and the damaged pump components are replaced. There are certain technical procedures involved. The question now is whether the Russians have the necessary spare parts and backup pumps, how quickly they can be installed, and what additional work is required," Vare said. "In any case, the best-case scenario would be a shutdown lasting a week or two."
"There are some reserves in the Ust-Luga terminal, meaning that a few ships already scheduled to load may still receive cargo. But after that, a problem arises because no new oil is coming in, leaving nothing to load," Vare explained.
He pointed out that halting oil supplies is a significant setback for Russia, as most of the Russian shadow fleet tankers operating in the Baltic Sea are linked to Ust-Luga. "Whether they will remain idly floating or something else happens — I can't say, but in any case, this is a painful blow."
Russia's oil sector has come under Ukrainian attacks over the past week. In addition to the pumping station in Tver, the Ryazan oil refinery was hit multiple times by drones, as was an oil processing plant in the Volgograd region. These attacks have knocked out 5 percent of Russia's refining capacity.
Vare said attacks on oil infrastructure are part of Ukraine's strategy to pressure Russia into ending the war.
"Supplying the civilian population is not a major concern for Russian authorities, but military supplies are. For example, in Ryazan, the Ukrainian drone strike disabled equipment that produced TS-1 aviation fuel, which is used in harsh Arctic conditions and for Russian military aircraft. This effectively removed half of that refinery's fuel production from the market in one blow, which is certainly a serious setback," the expert said.
Saks: Ukraine shows its ability to carry out actions with global impact
Security expert Rainer Saks told Friday's "Aktuaalne kaamera" that Ust-Luga is a crucial source of revenue for Russia's crude oil exports. However, the impact of the attack depends on how long the terminal remains out of service.
He highlighted that Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil infrastructure showcase its ability to carry out actions with global consequences.
"What matters here is how long these facilities remain out of service. Over the course of a year, these [damaged oil installations] may account for about 16–18 percent of production, but if they are only out of commission for a month, the impact is not that significant," Saks said.
"Nevertheless, this is an offensive action that targets Russia's most critical economic sector and will certainly reduce state revenues," he added.
Saks noted that halting oil shipments from Ust-Luga would not completely stop the shadow fleet's activities.
"For that to happen, Ust-Luga would have to be out of service for a very long time. Additionally, there are two other Russian oil terminals along the Gulf of Finland. This will not entirely halt oil exports in the region," Saks said.
He stressed that Ukraine's attacks on oil infrastructure demonstrate its capability to inflict severe economic damage on Russia. This could play a key role in potential peace negotiations, he believes.
"A prevailing narrative in Western media and among politicians suggests that Ukraine is losing and has no options left. But this is not true. The Ukrainians are proving they have developed the capability to conduct long-range strikes inside Russia," Saks added.
"There is also speculation that former U.S. President Joe Biden previously pressured Ukraine not to attack Russian oil infrastructure to avoid driving up global oil prices. Now, Ukrainians are showing that if they are not taken into account, they are capable of carrying out actions with worldwide consequences," he said.
Defense ministry: Attacks have a psychological impact on Russian society
Gert Kaju, head of the Defense Readiness Department at the Estonian Ministry of Defense, said strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have a psychological impact on Russian society.
"Despite everything that is said domestically, they are still getting hit. And this is also being reported in the media," he said.
Kaju added that Ukraine's attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure are slowing down the funding of the Russian war machine.
"If these strikes cause delays in fuel supplies to the Russian armed forces, it is a step toward Ukraine's success. This is Ukraine's rationale — if they can achieve their goal there, it may also ease pressure on the front line."
Ukraine also attacked Ust-Luga Port with drones at the beginning of 2024.
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Editor: Valner Väino, Maria-Ann Rohemäe, Helen Wright