On January 26, Estonia's government coalition partners decided that Estonia will support the construction of onshore wind farms in the capacity of 2 terawatt-hours (TWh) with up to €240 million and the construction of offshore wind farms in the capacity of 2 TWh with up to €2.6 billion. According to the auditor general, no materials have been submitted to date that would sufficiently justify this approach.

"It is impossible to determine based on either the bill or any other materials that it is the choice presented in this bill that will ensure the best possible electricity prices in the future for supporting Estonia's competitiveness and for consumers," Holm said in a letter to Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform).

"The assumptions underlying the scenarios are unclear or open to multiple interpretations, and the calculations used to reach one outcome or another are unavailable," he highlighted. "In some cases, it is impossible to obtain this information."

The auditor general noted that following the choices made by the chairs of the government coalition parties on January 26, 2025, an explanation was drawn up in the form of a so-called one-pager, which he described as clearly uninformative and insufficient for making fundamental, long-term decisions with financially significant impacts for Estonia.

"This is further confirmed by the fact that the decision-makers themselves have described key aspects of it differently," he added.

In mid-January, the National Audit Office (NAO) requested more detailed information and materials from the Climate Ministry regarding the Estonian electricity consumption forecasts that the ministry had used as the basis for its policy formation.

This included the electricity consumption forecast by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications (MKM) and the Estonian Business and Innovation Agency (EIS), which deviates significantly from transmission system operator (TSO) Elering's electricity consumption forecast, along with the names of the experts who prepared it, their calculations and their reasoning.

"For nearly a month, the Ministry of Climate ignored the questions sent by the NAO, and after several reminders, we received a terse response stating that the Ministry of Climate did not have the analysis related to the MKM and EIS' electricity consumption forecast," Holm said.

The Climate Ministry's previously used estimate of Estonia's annual electricity consumption reaching 15.4 TWh in 2035, which the ministry has since abandoned, was calculated based on the desired amount of subsidies, rather than the country's actual electricity consumption.

Finally, the auditor general emphasized that a decision like this should not be made at this time.

"Such significant, costly and pivotal decisions for Estonia's competitiveness should be based on the best up-to-date information and analysis available and in consultation with specialists," he underscored.

"Before approving the bill [of amendments to] the Electricity Market Act and the Energy Sector Organization Act and sending them to the Riigikogu, it would be wise to establish a well-defined and -reasoned strategic outlook in an energy development plan, which is in the process of being drawn up," Holm said. "If necessary, the process of drawing up this development plan should be significantly accelerated."

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