In an interview on ETV's "Aktuaalne kaamera" news broadcast Thursday night, Hamburg said that his initial reaction to the news that the government is scrapping its plan to support offshore wind farms with €2.6 billion was that this was "undoubtedly" a positive development.

"But it only makes sense if we learn something from this blunder," he noted. "And learning something means that we should address the electricity system as a whole, not just its individual parts."

According to the expert, it also means planning for the future based on a key number — the consumer price, within the agreed-upon supply security and environmental impact parameters — and then taking socioeconomic considerations into account.

"Only then can we plan a comprehensive energy system," he emphasized. "I hope this will be accomplished this year."

Asked how Estonia ended up in its current situation, Hamburg admitted that it's hard to explain, but also that it is somewhat unsettling.

"As a citizen of the Republic of Estonia, I find it unsettling that we've heard the previous minister took energy matters to the government cabinet ten times, and the current minister says eight times," he noted. "So, 18 times [they've] gone to discuss energy matters, yet the baseline data for these discussions is still missing, and this baseline data is constantly changing. To that end, it's a bit incomprehensible — what exactly is being discussed, and what is the productivity of this government cabinet?"

'Worldview-driven decision'

Meanwhile, he continued, just two days ago, all three coalition party leaders had still agreed that the offshore wind farm subsidy plan was a very good one. "And now we hear that the plan is off the table after all, because the data differed," he added.

Hamburg specified that he doesn't necessarily think expertise in the energy field is a requirement at the political level, but politicians should have accurate, evidence-based data, not decisions made based on opinions.

"Perhaps they do have [such data], but when we adopted the decision a few years ago that by 2030, all consumption must be covered by renewable energy, that was a worldview-driven decision," he recalled. "And now we're trying to realize this worldview-based decision somehow using actual technical measures."

Regarding Thursday's government memo, which included calculations for future electricity prices, the expert noted that final prices and figures will depend on three parameters: actual consumption, market price and the real costs of making weather-dependent electricity production suitable for consumption.

"Weather-dependent production and consumption never align perfectly," he noted.

Asked how he believes the government should act moving forward, Hamburg replied, "I think they should make it very clear what the societal costs are, what the societal benefits are, how much I as a private consumer will pay, and how this measure will ensure business competitiveness."

Auditor general: Scrapping the plan a good idea

Auditor General Janar Holm likewise found that the government's recent decision to cancel its planned offshore wind farm subsidies was the right one, given the large sum of money involved and the current uncertainty surrounding the matter.

"We cannot move forward with something we lack complete information on," he noted.

"The future of energy cannot be built in fragments — it must be considered as a whole," Holm continued, echoing Hamburg's comments. "We are currently working on an energy sector development plan, and an energy sector development plan is meant precisely for setting strategic goals as a whole."

According to Holm, what's happening right now is that individual issues are being decided in advance, while the strategic perspective is being left for later. Currently, the focus needs to be on the strategic perspective, and energy agreements should be reached within the framework of the energy sector development plan as quickly as possible.

The auditor general had previously been critical of the planned wind farm subsidy measures.

Holm recently noted that the Ministry of Climate had not provided the government with sufficient information for making a decision in the matter, and that the information that had been presented wasn't enough to guarantee that the planned decision would be a beneficial or optimal one for Estonia.

Läänemets: This puts onshore wind developers in new position too

According to Minister of the Interior Lauri Läänemets, chair of the coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE), the government's latest decision means more instability for onshore wind farm developers as well, since their revenue depends on the amount of wind energy in the region.

"The concern is, how do we provide security for onshore wind developers, because their business model depends on the offshore wind farm system," Läänemets told ERR. "If more money is allocated there, they'll see reduced returns."

While he commended the Climate Ministry for an improvement in the relevant documents, the current set of which he says could already almost serve as a basis for a decision, he also acknowledged that the new figures presented by the ministry at Thursday morning's government meeting prompted a lot of new questions.

"Once again we haven't seen these calculations and rationales," the minister noted. "And I also agree that if even the National Audit Office (NAO) cannot get ahold of the final calculations, then perhaps it would be hasty to make a decision."

Public's questions understandable

Läänemets said that the questions raised by the public and the media are valid ones.

"'How will this pay off?'" he asked. "'What impact will it have?' 'Will there even be that much wind?' We Social Democrats have been asking these questions in the government for the past half a year. For half a year, we've been given explanations in bits and pieces. And I understand that if it took us half a year at the government table to grasp anything, then for the public, there are a lot of questions still left unanswered."

He did confirm that ultimately, the direction is still the right one.

"Wind energy, oil shale as a reserve, natural gas plants, storage capacities, ensuring it is as cheap and decentralized as possible," the minister described. "We've agreed on this direction, but if changes are now made again, then I can't definitively say that we have any sort of agreement within the government."

This Thursday, the Estonian government decided to scrap its plan to subsidize the construction of offshore wind farms with up to €2.6 billion, essentially taking the coalition's previous subsidy decision off the agenda.

Instead, the Ministry of Climate will analyze whether there are other ways offshore wind farms could be developed. The ministry has promised to come up with a competitive reverse auction process early next year.

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