It may seem inappropriate to bring up Estonia's plummeting birth rate amid a global security crisis, but the consequences of failing to address this issue are already here. Since 2020, when all the major crises began, the number of births has dropped by nearly a third — and the decline is accelerating. Just in the past year, the birth rate fell by a quarter. Who are we ultimately building security for?

During the COVID-19 crisis, the minister of health was responsible for managing the situation. In times of a security crisis, the defense minister bears the responsibility of using the additional funding allocated to the ministry wisely. Even the climate crisis is being handled by an entire Ministry of Climate. But no one is addressing the birth rate crisis. Yet, this issue poses just as existential a threat to Estonia as an aggressive Russia.

At the same time, the position of minister of population was abolished and major demographic issues were downgraded to a subcategory of social policy. Since no one in the government cabinet was directly responsible for a comprehensive population policy, budget cuts and tax hikes were made based on spreadsheet calculations — primarily hitting large families. This deepened the uncertainty of the crisis era even further, leading many families to forgo having children they had planned.

The government eliminated the ability for spouses to file joint tax returns, scrapped the income tax exemption starting from the second child, revoked health insurance for stay-at-home mothers and reduced family benefits. In addition, the VAT was increased — disproportionately impacting large families with higher consumption needs — and the newly introduced car tax has hit families with many children the hardest.

The Estonian Large Families Association has done commendable work in researching the impact of tax hikes and budget cuts on the financial well-being of large families. A staggering 94 percent of survey respondents said that a car is their only viable means of getting by.

If there had been a minister in the government tasked with standing up for population policy and representing the interests of large families, these concerns could have been raised during cabinet discussions on tax changes. Unfortunately, no such minister exists.

In Estonia, responsibility for demographic issues formally falls to the minister of social protection, but these issues form only a small part of their portfolio. Population policy has unfortunately been reduced to a social policy issue — essentially, how to support those in need.

However, social policy alone does not increase the birth rate. Countries far wealthier than Estonia, such as Finland and Sweden, invest significantly in supporting at-risk groups, yet their birth rates remain low. Finland also has a particularly high rate of childlessness.

A more positive example actually comes from Estonia itself, when the government began providing substantial support to families starting with the birth of a third child. The number of third-child births increased by 25 percent. The state provided additional support to those who wished to have more children, helping them realize that wish. It is self-evident that people who do not want children cannot be forced to have them.

While social policy is important, it cannot, by itself, influence the desire to have children. The decision to have children is a broader cultural issue. Israel's society, for example, demonstrates that when large families are the norm, families tend to want more children. This is a question of societal attitudes, influenced both by the state's approach to parenthood and by upbringing at home and education in schools.

For instance, it would be important to discuss family planning models in school curriculum as part of family education. Awareness should be raised about the fact that people are not eternally young and there are biological limits to having children. If someone dreams of having more than two children, at what age would it be best to have them to ensure they are healthy and strong?

Unfortunately, there is widespread ignorance among young people on these matters. Studies show that many young people believe there are enough children in Estonia. There is also a prevalent misconception that there is unlimited time to have children, which is not the case. If someone postpones the decision to have children for too long and reaches their 40s before considering it, it may already be too late. Population policy should also ensure that young people understand that a career can be pursued at any time and at any age, but the window for starting a family is limited.

Of course, all of this must be done carefully, taking into account modern perspectives on family models and values. I was pleasantly surprised to see Minister of Social Protection Signe Riisalo (Reform) writing about family policy from a broad perspective, in which she also touched on contemporary views on the value of family life. Riisalo also promised that additional studies would be published on the topic. We look forward to these with great interest.

While the minister's well-articulated discussion was heading in the right direction, in the end, it still boiled down to a social policy solution — offering additional support to the most vulnerable group, single mothers. I fully support increasing aid to single mothers, but this cannot be the only positive measure in our country's population policy.

At the end of her article, Riisalo rightly pointed out that family policy requires cross-sectoral cooperation. Unfortunately, this is extremely difficult to achieve within the government when there is no dedicated official ensuring that policies hostile to family life do not pass.

To mitigate the demographic crisis, the government needs a cabinet-level official responsible for identifying the obstacles to having children and proposing solutions to remove those barriers. This cannot be effectively done when population issues are relegated to a small subsection of the minister of social protection's already extensive portfolio.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!