Mare Ainsaar said on ETV's "Esimene stuudio" that one way to increase the birth rate in Estonia is to encourage people to have children at a younger age by offering them a greater sense of security.

"Currently, people are postponing having children until later in life, which in itself is not a problem because many want to finish their studies, see the world and gain various experiences before starting a family. On the other hand, once people reach their 40s and 50s, health concerns arise and the time frame for having children narrows. Demographers have debated this for years and have concluded that encouraging people to start having children a little earlier generally leads to a higher average number of children," Ainsaar explained.

"Therefore, any measures that would encourage young people to form families and have children earlier — when it is indeed most difficult to start a family — would be beneficial. Providing them with a sense of security, be it financial stability or assurance that they won't have to give up their career or work life, allowing them to continue as equal members of society, possibly even more joyfully and successfully than before, would be very helpful," she added.

At the same time, Ainsaar noted that while some measures are effective, there is no magic solution.

She acknowledged that demands and strong rhetoric can provoke resistance among young people, citing the example of political messages about having children.

"I think it's a very unfortunate development in Estonia that having children and family behavior, along with support measures, have become highly politicized. There are certain political parties that are very actively pushing these issues, while others have consciously distanced themselves from them. This immediately gives the topic a political undertone and we indeed hear very strong demands that certainly provoke defiance among young people," Ainsaar said.

"I believe this is a lesson — it is certainly in society's interest that families have children, but this should be handled delicately by creating opportunities," she added.

Benefits system successful but sums not enough

Mare Ainsaar said that while Estonia's family support system is generally considered well-structured, the main issue lies in the volume of financial support provided.

"The core problem is that the amount of financial support, particularly child benefits, isn't keeping up with real-life costs and inflation, which is rising at an alarming rate. One proposed solution has been indexing these benefits. However, a softer option could be to have annual discussions — similar to how minimum wage negotiations are handled — where parties agree on what would be a reasonable child benefit amount," the population researcher explained.

Ainsaar emphasized that to avoid creating uncertainty among potential parents, family benefits should not be reduced.

"This is one of the key issues that matter to families. But the reason why various types of support are necessary is that children are citizens of the state — they are people and we recognize that they have basic needs that must be met to grow into fully contributing members of society, such as education, food and extracurricular activities. That is the primary purpose of child benefits," she noted.

People want to have children but reality is different

According to Ainsaar, Estonians generally have a strong desire to have children — on average, people wish to have more than two children, specifically 2.3. However, in recent years, the reality has been quite different.

"If people throughout their lives behaved the way all generations have acted this year, the actual outcome would be 1.3 children per family, which is half of the desired number," Ainsaar noted. She added that while younger generations express a slightly lower desire to have children than the 2.3 average, the difference is not significant.

Ainsaar emphasized that the issue in Estonia is not that people prioritize their careers over starting a family. "That's not the reason we're having fewer children. Perhaps the explanation lies in objective problems — uncertainty, economic difficulties and the fact that people are becoming more hedonistic, meaning they enjoy life more. But we're not yet seeing this leading to a complete abandonment of having children," she explained.

She also pointed out that factors like finding a partner and dealing with uncertainty influence people's decisions about having children.

"Research has looked into the reasons behind why birth rates are so low. One reason is uncertainty, which isn't surprising. Another is economic hardship, which also ties back to uncertainty — a lack of clarity about whether people can handle the joy and responsibility of having children. This leads to decisions to either postpone or forgo having children altogether. I believe that at a younger age, people think they're just postponing, but later it can turn into something more permanent," Ainsaar explained.

Immigration could change population structure

In the past two years, fewer than 10,000 children have been born annually in Estonia. Mare Ainsaar explained that birth rates depend on two key factors: how confident people feel about having children and how many potential parents there are in the population. The coming years will be challenging in this regard, as the generation reaching childbearing age now was born in the low-birth-rate period of the 1990s.

"Things won't get better or easier. The only hope is that people's desire and willingness to have children will somehow increase," she added.

However, Ainsaar noted that last year's low birth rate wasn't due to a decline in the number of women of childbearing age. Thanks to migration, the number of people in this demographic has actually increased. What has changed is people's behavior.

"We are waiting for a shift in behavior that could bring a positive signal or higher numbers. I believe anything above 10,000 births would already be a good result," she said.

Migration, according to Ainsaar, is an important factor that can influence Estonia's population dynamics.

"Since 2015, Estonia has experienced positive net migration, with younger people making up most of the arrivals. This is a hidden factor that can influence the numbers. The question is how we want to balance these proportions — how many of the population should be people born in Estonia versus immigrants. This balance will certainly affect the country's population structure and birth rate in the future," she explained.

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