Natalie Mets and Hele-Mai Viiksaar: The demographic toilet 20 years later

In public discussions, it is increasingly emphasized that having children is a personal decision for each individual or couple and no one has the right to interfere or question why someone does not wish to have or cannot have children. At the same time, it is often overlooked that a mere desire or agreement to have a child is not enough, write Natalie Mets and Hele-Mai Viiksaar.
This year marks the 20th anniversary of when political scientist Rein Taagepera introduced the metaphor of the "demographic toilet bowl" to describe Estonia's population situation. The expression was often interpreted literally, but Taagepera explained that "A demographic hole is a hole with another hole at the bottom — like a toilet bowl. In ten years, the number of births will drop sharply again because the number of men and women of childbearing age will also decline drastically."
Unfortunately, Taagepera's prediction has come true. According to Statistics Estonia, only 11,588 children were born in 2022, the lowest figure since 1919. In 2023, the birth rate dropped even further to 10,721, falling below 11,000 for the first time. Measures taken so far — such as subsidies for large families, threats of withholding pensions, imposing childlessness taxes or publicly shaming women — have not yielded the desired results.
So, what would help? Perhaps a more productive approach would be to focus on those who wish to start families and leave alone those who do not want children.
Child benefits and feeling secure
Although some believe that a 27-year-old childless woman has already "spat into the demographic toilet bowl," data from the National Institute for Health Development (TAI) shows that the average age of a first-time mother in Estonia is 29.5 years. Estonia's generous child benefit system is a positive example in population policy, but since it primarily focuses on families with multiple children, there is a lack of support and encouragement for having a first child.
Currently, the child allowance for a first and second child is €80 per month. For a third and subsequent child, the allowance increases to €100 per month. Additionally, families with at least three children receive a large family benefit, which in 2024 was €450 per month. At the same time, it is precisely the birth rates for first and second children that have fallen the most in Estonia in recent decades. To reverse this trend, increasing the support for a first child should be considered.
Single-parent benefits should also be raised, as they are currently only €80 per month in 2024, even though single parents often bear a greater financial and emotional burden. The benefits system should not create divisions in society or give the impression that third children are more valuable or desirable to the state than first or second children. Support measures should back all family models and help create a sense of security when taking the first steps toward starting a family.
"Wasting" the fertile age
Later childbirth should not be mistakenly equated with an unwillingness to have children at all. It may be related to a lack of support networks, economic uncertainty, the absence of a suitable partner or a desire to focus on mental health, career and education before starting a family.
Although the issue affects both genders, men feel much less pressure from biological time, if any at all. At the same time, there is a widespread misconception that men remain fertile for life, whereas women over 35 are labeled as having "geriatric pregnancies."
Society often overlooks how and when to address these topics within relationships. When should couples, for instance, consider freezing eggs? How should a woman over 30 deal with a male partner who says he wants children but isn't ready yet? These questions require honest and open conversations early in relationships. Such discussions help avoid heartbreak later and allow couples to approach family planning more realistically and consciously.
Infertility and treatment
Public discourse increasingly emphasizes that having children is a personal decision and no one has the right to interfere or question why someone doesn't want or can't have children. However, it is often overlooked that simply wanting or agreeing to have a child is not enough — infertility is a complex issue faced by many couples.
Approximately one in six couples worldwide experiences fertility problems. While Estonia's Health Insurance Fund covers infertility treatment costs and in-vitro fertilization (IVF) gives many families hope, the process often comes with significant emotional and social burdens.
Instead of treating infertility as a societal taboo, we should foster an open and supportive environment. According to TAI, 680 children were born through fertility treatments in Estonia in 2022, accounting for nearly 6 percent of all live births. This statistic highlights the need to raise awareness and provide more support to families.
The narrative of "wasting fertile years" should be replaced with a supportive and informed approach. More attention should be given to reproductive health topics, including fertility-related facts and risks for both genders. A supportive and well-informed society enables families to experience less pressure and more confidence on their journey.
Who has the right to live to an old age?
We have reached a point where young people, rather than retirees, are the most concerned about pensions. Many have long accepted that relying solely on state pensions will not be enough, and therefore, they must save and invest — if they even have the means to do so.
Labeling childless people parasites who do not deserve social protection in old age is dangerous and misguided. Haven't these individuals contributed to society through their work and tax payments? Are parents whose children suffer from illness or severe disabilities somehow worth less because their children may never become taxpayers? And what about parents whose children emigrate and take their taxes with them or choose lower-paying jobs in Estonia?
Ensuring the sustainability of the pension system should not focus solely on "giving birth to future pension pillars" but rather on consciously raising and adapting the system to meet the changing demographics and societal needs. Every person deserves the right to age with dignity, regardless of their personal choices or life circumstances.
Challenges of finding a partner
Sanna Kartau has written that Estonia, along with Poland, Ukraine, Finland and Sweden, is one of the few European countries where the average married man has a lower level of education than his wife. This puts highly educated women in a difficult position, where finding a suitable partner can become a significant challenge.
To reduce educational inequality, systemic solutions are needed that go beyond individual choices. Men should be more encouraged to pursue higher education, while efforts to reduce gender-based stereotypes must continue to ensure equal opportunities for both sexes.
We are not claiming that higher education automatically guarantees stable mental health or fosters a sense of responsibility, but it does provide clear advantages in the labor market, which, in turn, creates greater financial security for families.
It is also essential to recognize that men benefit from healthier lives when supporting the family is not their sole avenue for self-fulfillment. A shared family life creates healthier relationships with children and allows both partners to pursue their interests and hobbies outside of family life, which supports mental and physical well-being.
Having a child is a life-changing decision that inevitably places greater responsibility on women. Therefore, it is crucial that women feel secure with their partners and believe that the family is being built with a supportive companion. Family life should not fall solely on one person's shoulders or become a secondary project for the other partner in their free time. Instead, it should be a shared and equal responsibility between two people, promoting the development and well-being of both partners.
Child-friendly state and urban space
Yes, absolutely! One key issue often underestimated in discussions about population growth and family policy is the organization of childcare and the creation of child-friendly urban spaces.
Although Estonia offers generous parental benefits and long parental leave, many families face significant challenges once their child turns 18 months old.
First, access to quality childcare remains a major issue. There are not enough daycare spots, flexible or part-time childcare options are rare and private daycare services are often unaffordable for the average family. This situation forces many parents, especially women, to extend their career breaks or give up full-time work altogether. This is not only financially draining but also devastating for women's career progression and future pension security.
Can we imagine a system where kindergartens and daycare centers offer more flexible hours and formats? For instance, childcare options should accommodate shift workers, such as retail employees and healthcare professionals.
Second, we need to address what it truly means to be a child-friendly country and to create child-friendly urban spaces. A child-friendly country is one where families can move around and participate in society safely and conveniently. Currently, this remains a challenge in Estonia. For example, navigating city streets with a stroller — especially outside of major urban centers — can be a real obstacle course, as sidewalks, pedestrian crossings and public transportation options are often unsuitable or unsafe.
A child-friendly urban environment also includes affordable community activities for families, sufficient playgrounds, access to hobbies and extracurricular activities for children and support services in schools, such as specialists and psychologists.
Investing in these areas is crucial to creating an environment where families feel supported and encouraged to have children, knowing that they will have access to the necessary resources and infrastructure.
In closing
Population decline is a serious challenge, but addressing it starts with identifying the real problems and tackling them head-on. Instead of blame and polarization, we should focus on creating an environment where people feel safe, supported and encouraged to start families. Population growth doesn't need to be a matter of ideological conflict — it's a societal challenge that requires smart and effective solutions.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski