Demographer: The Estonian people will survive with a slightly smaller population
To ensure the survival of the Estonian people, language and high culture, the population does not need to keep growing, said Ene-Margit Tiit, professor emeritus of the University of Tartu, mathematician, statistician and demographer, on the talk show "Plekktrumm."
Ene-Margit Tiit's longstanding interest in Estonia's population is evident from her recently published book, titled "Eesti rahvastik – loendamata ja loendatud" ("The Estonian Population – Uncounted and Counted"). In the book, Tiit analyzes the results of the most recent census. The demographer emphasized that the issues surrounding Estonia's population are inherently intertwined with those concerning Estonian identity.
"These are issues concerning the survival of our state and our people. During the Soviet era, it was not easy to access all population data, but the steady decline in the proportion of Estonians with each successive census naturally caused significant concern," Tiit said.
Her interest in population issues dates back 60 years when Tiit was part of a family studies working group at the State University of Tartu. The group's goal was to study family relationships and develop a system for finding suitable partners.
"Our working group also included psychologist Enn Koemetes, who indeed created a specific test that could, to some extent, evaluate people's characters and help identify slightly more compatible couples. Of course, there were other factors that determined compatibility, such as similar education levels and shared values. I don't think we discovered anything revolutionary, but we did find certain patterns," Tiit recalled.
The group's research was extensive, resulting in around ten volumes of scientific work initially published in Estonian, and later in English and Russian, garnering considerable interest.
According to Tiit, there are many different forms of happy families. "There are likely certain factors that contribute to happiness, but there is no definitive answer. And, to be honest, there are even fewer happily living families today than there were 50 years ago," she noted.
After becoming a professor emeritus, Ene-Margit Tiit took up a position at the Statistics Estonia office, where she has continued to focus on population issues. Tiit, who has remained active in professional life during retirement, believes that curiosity is what drives a scientist or someone with a passion for science.
"Just because you turn 65 doesn't mean your thinking stops or that you are no longer capable of doing anything. That is a completely mistaken notion. There are many fascinating things in the world still to be explored, and for a statistician, it was most natural to pursue work in my field, which led me to Statistics Estonia. Being tasked with dealing with censuses there was an interesting challenge of its own. As a result, censuses are now conducted a bit differently than they were before," the demographer explained.
Tiit considers the interwar period of the Estonian Republic as the golden age for Estonians in terms of population numbers, when the Estonian population reached one million. According to her, such a large number of Estonians likely never existed before. "Estonians clearly made up a strong majority in their country. We were 88 percent, with less than 10 percent Russians, who had remained after World War I and arrived to some extent from the Petseri (Pechory) region, as the Seto people lived there alongside Russians," Tiit said. According to Tiit, at that time, there was also a small population of Germans, coastal Swedes who had lived in Estonia for centuries, as well as a few Jews, Roma, Latvians and Poles.
This spring, Ene-Margit Tiit celebrated her 90th birthday. She was born during that same golden age for Estonians. However, she noted that it was not an era of unbridled growth; even then, there were plenty of visionaries who were concerned about low birth rates and empty cradles.
"Most years, the natural population increase was positive, but there was no period of rapid growth. Rapid growth had occurred in the previous century, likely around the time when Estonians gained freedom from serfdom and could purchase their own farms. Possibly even more significant growth occurred earlier, following the catastrophic declines caused by wars and plagues," Tiit said.
By the time of the Estonian Republic, the period of rapid growth had already ended. According to Tiit, there was slow development, but the losses from war were severe and recovery took time. Today, the peak of Estonian population numbers has almost been restored, being only about 3-4 percent smaller.
Childhood in Tartu
According to Tiit, Tartu at that time was calm and friendly. She fondly recalled walks through the streets of Tartu. "Cars were relatively rare in Tartu; more common were horse-drawn vehicles. If you needed to get somewhere quickly, it was more usual to take a carriage driver than a taxi, although taxis did exist. There was a stone bridge, and there was the botanical garden, which we often visited because my friend lived there, and we sat together in first grade," Tiit reminisced.
Tiit remembers that the Tartu dialect was commonly spoken on the streets, in the market and occasionally by acquaintances. However, it was not spoken at home. "Intellectuals spoke standard Estonian, which was very important at the time; speaking dialects was considered a sign of lower education. But let's say that while dialect words were not frowned upon, German words certainly were, at least among intellectuals. For example, if a housekeeper came and said they had a 'pürst' (broom) with them, they were corrected – one had to say 'hari' (broom) in Estonian," Tiit explained.
Her childhood was spent in a home filled with books, which she considers a small advantage. Although Tiit grew up mostly on her own, she spent much of her time immersed in books. "Not only did I quickly read through all the books bought for me – though there weren't that many, as books were expensive –
but I also read a small encyclopedia we had and the books intended for adults. I remember that Ristikivi's "Rohtaed" was among them," Tiit recalled.
Tiit noted that the time and place of her upbringing instilled in her a certain skepticism and a need to verify things. "After it became clear that the radio could say one thing one day and something entirely different the next, you started to wonder if what you heard on the radio could always be trusted. During the war, there were times when you had to fear planes marked with a swastika, and then later, those marked with a red star. First, one side was bad, and then the other; you had to fear them all. It showed that things in the world were not so simple, and you couldn't take everything you heard at face value. This understanding extended to school as well; I believe our generation could clearly tell when a teacher spoke sincerely and when they were simply saying what they were supposed to," she said.
Population changes
According to the demographer, the 21st century marks a global shift in population trends, with the world's population no longer growing. "Until now, it has grown relentlessly, tripling over the last 70 years. It is clear that such growth cannot continue indefinitely. Even now, it is evident that resources have been used far more than they should have been for maintaining balance. When the global population begins to decline, it is a process that will inevitably take place in Estonia as well. When discussing the overall change in population, the fact that Estonia's population will likely decrease in this century is not a unique issue for us; it merely reflects a global process," Tiit observed.
The number of Estonians in Estonia has even shown some gradual recovery. "We are only about 3 percent fewer than at our peak. There are several reasons for this. One factor is that there are almost 200,000 Estonians living around the world, some of whom have returned. Since living conditions and the climate in Estonia are relatively favorable, some Estonians have come back, and we can hope more will follow. Interestingly, if we look at all demographic indicators, Estonians fare slightly better than other populations living in Estonia. Estonians also tend to live in rural areas, where birth rates have historically been a bit higher and life seems a bit better, with more children per family," Tiit explained, adding that urban life likely shifts focus away from family and children.
According to Tiit, a decrease in population is to be expected. "In some way, we have grown accustomed to the idea that everything must grow. We want continuously increasing incomes, economic growth, which in turn seems to require population growth. But this ideology of growth will likely change at some point. I do not believe that, in order for a nation, its language and high culture to survive, the population must be as large as it is today or even larger. It is possible to sustain these things with a somewhat smaller population. I think this needs to be taken into account. Life can continue with a slightly smaller population," the demographer said.
Tiit pointed out that a separate issue is the fact that around a third of Estonia's population is non-Estonian. "This has actually happened in Estonia before, following the Great Northern War and the Livonian War, when the population declined and neighbors arrived. These neighbors eventually adopted our language, our culture and became Estonians. Interestingly, in recent years, this process has also been occurring to some extent. I believe that those who have become Estonians – meaning those who have officially changed their ethnicity in the population registry – are mainly likely the descendants of mixed families who, upon reaching adulthood, feel that they are Estonian and change their ethnicity accordingly. Of course, there are also changes in the opposite direction, but those are far fewer," Tiit explained.
She further noted that telling people they must have children because there are too few of us and we are at risk of extinction does not encourage childbirth. A far better motivator is showing that having children brings joy.
"That life with children is much more fulfilling than being alone. Of course, today the expectations are also set very high. A young family might think they need to have their own home, a car and a dedicated room for the child even before they are born, along with not just a stroller but a car seat and all kinds of other things. Until they acquire these, they may delay thinking about having a child and instead keep the family dog," Tiit explained.
She recalled how 50-60 years ago, student families often started out in a dorm room, and it was there that many of the children who grew up to become today's professors and PhD holders were born.
Having children, Tiit noted, can often seem blocked by material barriers. "Every corner you turn, advertisements shout at you about more things you need to buy. When thinking about the fact that quite a few people would gladly move to the countryside, there may indeed be material barriers, as establishing a home in the countryside is difficult. This is an area where the state could offer support," the demographer noted.
One of Tiit's consistent messages has been that Estonia should not become peripheralized. According to her, one of the most important elements of regional, population and family policy is functioning infrastructure in rural areas that meets modern standards.
"If there is no good connectivity for people, no postal services, no electricity and if, for one reason or another, communities – the very force keeping people in rural areas – are broken up in the name of optimization, that is truly regrettable. Closing small schools may improve things from an educational efficiency standpoint, but small school communities have tremendous value. Studies have shown that education is not solely about specific knowledge but also about social skills and related development," Tiit emphasized.
Tiit has often highlighted that Estonian women tend to be more educated than men, and she sees several reasons for this. "One reason is that the teaching profession is highly feminized. I wouldn't be surprised if, in some cases, female teachers have difficulty connecting with teenage boys. That could be one factor. Another is that the school curriculum might not include topics that are particularly engaging for boys. Perhaps boys would prefer more hands-on activities, possibly involving mechatronics, engineering and similar subjects," the demographer explained.
Tiit also noted that this educational disparity can present challenges for women when seeking partners with a similar level of education.
"Of course, there are great examples of successful relationships, like a professor married to a construction worker. However, when we conducted studies on what students expected from their future lives and partners – studies carried out three times over ten-year intervals in Helsinki, Kyiv and the Caucasus countries – the findings were consistent: female students stated that the most important trait in their future partner was education. The man's education needed to be at least as high as theirs. They were fine with a man being more educated, but they did not want a partner with a lower level of education. This was the dominant view among female students in all these studies," Tiit said.
Despite officially retiring, Ene-Margit Tiit has remained very active. "Writing is a wonderful activity and I enjoy it very much. I write, read, listen to music and have conversations with friends," Tiit shared.
In terms of cultural recommendations, she recently attended an inaugural lecture given by young biology lecturer Tuul Sepp. "She has written two excellent books: "Evolutsioonibioloogi päevik" ('Diary of an Evolutionary Biologist'), which features 100 short stories about animals and her own children, and a slightly more serious book co-authored, "Loovad loomad muutuvas maailmas" ('Creative Animals in a Changing World'). Both offer fascinating insights into how animals adapt and new perspectives on the animal kingdom compared to the past," Tiit recommended.
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Editor: Karoliina Tammel, Karmen Rebane, Marcus Turovski