Ukrainian forces have largely withdrawn from the Kursk oblast, Colonel Toomas Väli, Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) general staff operations department said.

Speaking at a Ministry of Defense press conference Friday, Väli said: "The Ukrainian people have been heroically fighting the aggressor for 1,129 days now."

He noted that the number of Russian attacks had slightly risen over the past week, from an earlier average of around 170 per week, to about 120 per day in February and 150 in March. "An increase in activity is observable," Väli noted.

Weather conditions now favor more active warfare than in February, he said, while the ongoing peace talks, or talks about talks, are also a factor.

"Another factor is that there is an ongoing attempt to exert military pressure to support the so-called pseudo-negotiations," Väli added.

As for the Kursk region: "Ukraine still holds an area of about 70–80 square kilometers near Guevo, south of the city of Sudzha," the Lieutenant Colonel went on.

"Meanwhile, in the same Kursk front sector, near the village of Basivka, Sumy oblast, Russian forces have pushed a few kilometers past the state border," he continued.

There are several reasons for the Ukrainian forces' retreat from Kursk.

"First of all, the Russians managed to bring the main logistics lines supporting Ukrainian force groupings under their fire control. These logistics routes were attacked with both artillery and attack drones," the colonel said. He added that Russian forces also used the element of surprise and overwhelming numbers.

Thanks to the Kursk operation, Russia was forced to redeploy troops from its main offensive direction.

"Russia had to concentrate units in Kursk oblast for clearing operations, including those that were originally meant for use in the main offensive direction, i.e., Donetsk. With the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions and in [Ukraine's] Zaporizhzhia oblast, we can say that 'all is quiet on the eastern front.' This is thanks to the Kursk operation, during which Ukraine managed to keep Russia on the back foot for seven months. Thanks to that, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and those frontline sectors are fully under control."

Over the past week, both warring sides have struck each other's infrastructures, despite the March 18 conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump in which it was allegedly agreed to stop strikes on energy infrastructure. "In reality, since then, the Russians have attacked critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure at least eight times, according to Ukrainian data," Väli noted.

A day later on March 19, Ukraine attacked an oil terminal in Krasnodar Krai, which indirectly supported the Russian war machine. "This directly affects the operations of Russia's shadow fleet and their cash flow," said Väli, adding that satellite imagery analysis shows the oil terminal was almost completely destroyed.

The destruction of the oil terminal could have broader, global consequences.

"In 2023, Ukrainians managed to damage Russian oil refineries and infrastructure with long-range drones, to the extent that nearly 15 percent of their refining capacity was lost. As a result, Russia had to impose export restrictions on gasoline, which in turn impacted the international oil market," Väli continued.

From September last year to February this year, nearly 25 Ukrainian strikes on various Russian oil terminals, distribution hubs, and refineries have been recorded. Of these, nine targeted refineries while 12 targeted oil storage facilities, the EDF officer said.

"The total estimated damage to this infrastructure, based on public sources, amounts to nearly US$700 million," he continued.

Russia has also continued attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure over the past week, utilizing both drones and missiles, while Russian units fighting Ukrainian forces in Kursk are also engaging in widespread looting of civilian property even in their own territory.

"An interesting observation is that the Russian units 'liberating' Kursk Oblast are also 'liberating' civilians of their belongings. Looting has reached such a level that even pro-war commentators have been forced to speak out, saying something must be done," Väli said.

Väli recounted another episode of the type which could perhaps only happen in Russia.

"One video clip caused horror among commentators, where it showed that fallen Russian 'heroes' had been sent to the wrong city [for burial]. Instead of forwarding the coffins to their correct destination, that local city government opted to dispose of them in a landfill," he recounted.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has also struck Russia's Engels airbase. "It was damaged by UAVs to the extent that hangars — where reportedly warheads were attached to cruise missiles and initial data and coordinates were programmed — were impacted. Whether this impacts Russian air force operations in the long term — well probably not, but short-term, yes."

"Ukrainian defense is holding, and there is no sign that their defensive spirit is breaking," Väli concluded.

Recent floated ceasefire proposals had included a bar on attacks on energy infrastructure and, most recently, a renewal of safe passage for grain ships across the Black Sea. Russia has utilized delaying tactics throughout this process, while, in addition to any cultural expectations of not honoring an agreement, since it also has had the initiative on the eastern front, it lacks incentive to stick to an immediate ceasefire agreement. On the other hand, for Ukraine, the proposed Black Sea ceasefire means that its successful harassing of Russian shipping there would stop.

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