Economist on Trump tariffs: Quite a blow for Estonian businesses

United States President Donald Trump's decision this week to impose a 20 percent protective tariff on all European Union imports is quite a blow to Estonian industrial firms as well, and finding a replacement for that market won't be easy, Lenno Uusküla, chief economist at Luminor bank, said.
Speaking to "Terevisioon", Uusküla referenced wood and electronics exporters, as well as manufacturers of mechanical equipment oriented toward the U.S. market, as being those most affected by the tariffs.
Uusküla said: "The question is who the cheaper alternative is. Most likely, a replacement for the U.S. market won't be found easily. Though in the long term, it will work against them."
At the same time, Uusküla said that the U.S. is not as important a trading partner for the EU as we might tend to think. "If we think about our shopping basket, there really aren't that many U.S. goods in there. There's whiskey and some candies, and specific 'intellectual' products, like Facebook, that are active."
Uusküla also noted that the EU is now both an ally and an adversary of the U.S., all at the same time. "The U.S. desperately needs the EU, because those same cars they want to produce themselves often come from EU manufacturers. Many U.S. car parts still come from Europe. They can't manage without it," he commented on the implications of Trump's decision.
According to Uusküla, we are now seeing the U.S. opting to shut itself off from global trade, while the accompanying tariff decisions will certainly have a negative effect on that country's own economic growth, Uusküla went on. "U.S. firms do not see this in a positive light. The hope that foreign companies will shoulder the burden is not very realistic. Prices will still rise in the U.S."
Uusküla noted plenty of ambiguity and contradiction in Trump's decisions and goals.
He said: "It remains unclear what Trump's objective is, as [his] words and actions do not match up. Conventional economic logic contradicts what Trump is saying. He says the U.S. trade deficit is bad, yet this means that the U.S. has for years been able to consume more than it has produced. That has been paid for by printing dollars, by issuing bonds. Why this is such a big problem for America has been unclear from the outset. On the contrary, it has been an opportunity for the U.S. that is not available to other countries."
An interesting presupposition with Trump, according to Uusküla, is that when he decides on something, no one will respond. "Yet in the coming weeks, we will begin to see other countries react, start to implement countermeasures, which in turn will anger Trump and lead to a new escalation."
Deriding the EU as "ripping us off" and "pathetic," Trump announced he was hitting the bloc with a 20 percent tariff on all imports in what he called a "Liberation Day" announcement, which also hits major economies like China, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.
Imposing tariffs tends to lead to higher prices in the tariff-imposing nation and, in any case, usually leads to retaliatory tariffs, a phenomenon comparable with an arms race.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mirjam Mäekivi
Source: “Terevisioon”, interviewer Juhan Kilumets