Economists and businesspeople stressed the importance of how the EU and other trading partners reciprocate with their own tariffs.

There are also potential indirect consequences for Estonia's economic growth and trade relations, the commentators, speaking to "Aktuaalne kaamera," noted.

Otto Pukk, head of electronics manufacturer Incap, said it would be wisest to wait before assessing the tariffs' full impact, including how other countries respond.

He said: "Incap has one of its production plants in the U.S., and 20 percent of our production goes to the U.S. But it's too early to say. This is the first move by the Trump administration; now, negotiations with countries will begin. I'm optimistic. I think a lot of dust has been kicked up now, but that dust will settle, and normality will return."

The Estonian economy may feel the impact of US tariffs through its closer trading partners, economist at SEB Pank Mihkel Nestor argued.

He said: "If we look at Finland, for example, whose most important trading partner is the U.S., some there are already saying that this year's economic growth will be zero because of that. In Estonia's case, the impact won't be substantial. If we estimate how much Estonia's economic growth will drop this year due to tariffs, it won't be one, two, or three percent — it will be something like zero point something."

Tõnu Mertsina, an analyst at competitor bank Swedbank, agreed that the direct impact of U.S. tariffs on Estonia won't be significant, but indirect effects will influence Estonia's overall economic growth.

He said: "A lot depends on how the EU responds to these tariffs. It also depends on whether a different agreement is reached with the U.S."

"If we look at Estonia's relations with the U.S. right now, last year the share of goods exports to the U.S. was over five percent — the U.S. was Estonia's sixth-largest trading partner."

"However, about a third of these goods were mobile communication devices, whose share in Estonia's total exports is small — just over 1 percent. So on the one hand, you could say the direct impact isn't big. But since we'll also take a hit via our trade partners, we have to account for the fact that Estonia's economic growth will be weaker than previously expected," he continued.

Peeter Luikmel, economist at the Bank of Estonia (Eesti Pank), noted the tariffs may pressure the Trump administration, saying: "Essentially, this is not so much the opening move for a trade war as Trump's opening for another round of negotiations. Domestically, U.S. producers relying on imported inputs — like the automotive industry — will certainly start pressuring the government."

Mertsina also doubted that U.S. tariffs would immediately benefit that country, pointing out that the tariffs-then-negotiations tactic is a hallmark of Trump's.

"As inflation is likely to rise in the U.S., and the hope that American companies will return to the U.S. may not materialize easily. The supply chains established with companies in Asian countries won't immediately follow. This raises the question of what happens to the supply chains around these companies. So this policy and the imposition of tariffs have a negative outlook, definitely not in the short term," he said.

Mertsina reiterated that Trump's past actions show a tendency to impose tariffs first and negotiate later, so it can be assumed that will likely happen again.

Luikmel said U.S. trade policy may hinder interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

He said: "From the European perspective, any imposition of tariffs raises inflation, even in the short term, which means we can expect that forecasts for further interest rate cuts will need to be revised, depending on how Europe responds to protective tariffs."

However, U.S. producers and consumers will bear the brunt of the tariffs, Pukk noted, saying: "These tariffs aren't something the companies themselves pay. Ultimately, it's the end customer who pays the tariffs. The question now is whether there are alternatives on the U.S. market to the goods they are currently importing."

Trump's tariffs on EU goods, announced on Wednesday, could benefit U.S. manufacturers in the short term, but harm poorer Americans, foreign producers, and disrupt global supply chains. The longer-term outcomes remain uncertain, and businesses may be discouraged by the fact that Trump cannot seek re-election in 2028, meaning these policies may be undone.

The U.S. has a history of protectionism, peaking in the early 20th century. Trump's tariffs, which began during his first term, mark the highest levels of protectionism since the Great Depression.

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