In 2023, the number of inmates in Estonia dropped below 2,000 for the first time and has been decreasing by about one hundred people each year. Meanwhile, the Swedish government aims to impose tougher and longer sentences, making it unlikely that the number of prisoners there will decline in the near future.

A draft agreement prepared by the Ministry of Justice for leasing prison space to Sweden aims to reduce the cost burden of underutilized Estonian prison facilities — or even to generate revenue from them. According to the draft, up to 600 inmates would be transferred from Sweden to Estonia.

For Swedish offenders, the Estonian state plans to use the S-Wing of Tartu Prison, which has approximately 350 places across 175 cells, followed by the E-Wing, which has 631 places in 318 cells.

"The entire Tartu Prison would be leased out, except for the open prison, the detention house and the psychiatric care units. This ensures that Estonian and foreign inmates will not come into contact with one another," the explanatory note to the draft states.

Swedish prisoners would be transferred under an international agreement, meaning that their sentences would be carried out under Estonian law and enforced exclusively by Estonian officials. Foreign officials would have only an advisory or quality control role.

Through the agreement, Estonia hopes to generate at least €30 million in additional revenue. The Ministry of Justice also highlights that the arrangement would help retain staff positions — essential in the event that Estonia's own prison population begins to rise again or if additional prison space is needed to detain individuals during times of war or hybrid conflict.

Estonia to be paid €30.6 million annually

According to an analysis conducted by PwC, leasing prison space is economically beneficial for the Estonian state.

Estonia would receive a fixed annual payment of €30.6 million for making 300 cells available six months in advance — regardless of whether the actual number of prisoners transferred is lower. Tartu Prison would incur a one-time cost of €6.4 million to launch the service, and that amount is included in the annual fee.

If additional cells are used, Estonia would receive a monthly payment of €8,500 per inmate, retroactively. This amount covers healthcare services, prison administration costs and court expenses. For Sweden, the arrangement is a cost-saver, as housing a prisoner domestically costs around €11,400 per month.

The Ministry of Justice projects that the prison rental deal will boost employment and, through that, increase tax revenues. If at least 500 foreign inmates arrive and the required workforce is employed, an additional €4.67 million in social tax and €3 million in income tax is expected to be collected over three years.

The draft acknowledges that leasing out prison space is not without risk. One such risk is the potential for public polarization over the transfer of foreign inmates. While the likelihood of prisoners escaping is considered very low, both the prison service and the police are prepared to respond if necessary.

To prevent the spread of organized crime from within the prison system to outside society, inmates linked to organized crime will not be transferred to Estonia.

"Estonia will conduct a thorough background check on each inmate before accepting them and reserves the right to refuse individuals. Additionally, the international agreement allows Estonia to return a foreign inmate if circumstances arise that would have prevented their initial transfer," the draft's explanatory note states.

It is also considered highly unlikely that prisoners would try to remain in Estonia after serving their sentences, as they would be sent back to Sweden before completing their term.

Estonian prisoners to be kept separately

The explanatory memo also identifies a security risk related to visitors wishing to meet with foreign inmates in Estonia — some of whom may be linked to extremist ideologies or past criminal activity. To mitigate this, the background of all visitors to foreign inmates will be screened and visitation will primarily be limited to close relatives. In addition, inmates will be offered the option of video calls with loved ones to reduce the number of in-person visits.

The most significant risks, according to the explanatory note, are internal to the prison itself. These include inmate-on-inmate violence, repeated violations such as disorderly conduct or drug possession and mental health concerns among prisoners.

"Such scenarios are more realistic and more frequent than incidents posing a direct threat to public order. Since Estonian prisons deal with similar cases and risks on a daily basis, this is not a new challenge. The prison has the knowledge and experience necessary to prevent such situations," the explanatory note states.

The document also warns that prisoners separated from their home country — who feel isolated and are only minimally engaged by prison staff due to language barriers — may form groups based on shared language, religion or other characteristics. These groups can become hierarchical and result in the mistreatment of more vulnerable inmates. Such conditions could foster radicalization and the emergence of criminal networks.

To prevent such risks, the draft proposal allows for the use of translation tools in prisons and stipulates that Estonian and foreign inmates will be housed in separate facilities to prevent the formation of criminal ties between them.

To block the spread of extremist ideologies, prisoners with known links to such influences will not be accepted into Estonia. Inmate backgrounds will be thoroughly vetted in cooperation with the police and the Estonian Internal Security Service (ISS).

Staff training needed for communicating with people from different cultures

The arrival of foreign inmates will also require adjustments at the local prison level. Estonian officials will need additional training and extra resources will be needed due to the limited availability of interpreters for less common foreign languages.

"To mitigate risks, training must be organized for prison staff focusing on intercultural communication, overcoming language barriers and identifying signs of radicalization. It is important to understand that bringing foreign inmates to Estonia may increase the risk of crime within prisons, particularly through organized crime or inmate-on-inmate violence. To prevent this, the ongoing active security work within the prison system will be continued and strengthened," the explanatory note states.

Another major risk identified is the possibility of attempts to influence or manipulate Estonian officials. To prevent this, staff members will always work in pairs and never be alone with an inmate. The selection of personnel, according to the note, will be deliberate and strategic.

Swedish officials will also be present at Tartu Prison to support Estonian staff and help resolve potential linguistic or cultural conflicts.

Bringing in Swedish inmates will also require Tartu Prison to hire at least 250 additional employees on top of its current staff of 160, as Sweden mandates a higher staff-to-inmate ratio than Estonia does.

While the core training of prison officers is generally similar, they will need to acquire specific knowledge to work with inmates from another country. Foreign nationals may also be employed in the prison service.

The explanatory note additionally states that the international agreement may allow for a different court procedure and the establishment of special courts to handle matters related to Swedish inmates, but any such structures must comply with the Estonian Constitution.

No women and minors

Under the terms of the agreement, Sweden will not transfer to Estonia any inmates who are women, minors, diagnosed with terminal illnesses or severe psychiatric disorders, sentenced to psychiatric care, retired, wanted by Estonian authorities, Estonian citizens or individuals who have been banned from entering Estonia.

The reason Estonia does not plan to accept women or minors is that men, women and minors must be held in separate facilities. Accommodating them would therefore require significant additional expenses.

The draft proposal notes that because inmates must be treated equally, this arrangement may lead to the provision of certain accommodations for Estonian prisoners that have previously been considered too burdensome. For example, halal food has not been offered in Estonian prisons to date, but if such a provision is included in the agreement with Sweden, it would no longer be justifiable to deny the same to Estonian inmates. According to the explanatory note, similar issues may arise with other services as well.

Food requirements for inmates transferred from Sweden will follow the same standards applied in Estonia, with religious dietary preferences accommodated when possible. Vegetarian meals are always available upon request.

One unresolved issue is the use of tobacco products in prison, which is permitted in Sweden but not in Estonia. The explanatory note leaves this matter open, acknowledging that it has been discussed in negotiations and will ultimately require a political decision.

Swedish prisoners will not be put in open prison

One of the conditions of the prison lease is that Swedish inmates will not undergo reintegration programs aimed at releasing them into Estonian society; therefore, they will not be placed in open prisons.

"In addition, it must be taken into account that these inmates would not be released into Estonian society after serving their sentences, but would most likely be deported to third countries outside Europe, from which they originate. As such, there is no need to prepare them for release into Estonia or Europe by placing them in open facilities. Foreign inmates will also not be permitted temporary leave or escorted outings under Estonia's Imprisonment Act," the draft states.

However, disciplinary measures differ between the two countries: Sweden does not have the same disciplinary penalties as Estonia, and as a result, such penalties will not be applied to Swedish inmates held in Estonia.

According to the explanatory note, this gives Estonia's prison service an opportunity to test an alternative disciplinary system on a pilot group. Order in the prison would primarily be enforced by tying misconduct to delays in eligibility for early release.

Under the draft agreement, Estonia will make 400 cells available to house up to 600 inmates. Each cell must contain at minimum a chair, table, cabinet or shelf, suitable bed and bedding, mirror, bulletin board, in-cell terminal for communicating with Estonian staff, mug, alarm clock, radio and television.

In the year 2000, Estonian prisons held around 4,700 inmates. By the end of last year, there were 3,278 prison places, of which 1,443 — about 44 percent — were vacant.

The agreement is scheduled to be signed on June 18 in Stockholm and will be valid for five years. Unless either party objects, it will automatically be extended for another three years once that term ends.

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