Estonia and Sweden and discussing an agreement which would bring up to 600 Swedish inmates to Estonia's prisons in the coming years. While Swedish prisons are overcrowded, Estonia's are underutilized.

Estonia hopes to generate at least €30 million in additional revenue through the agreement.

While politicians tend to see benefits to accepting foreign prisoners, the Internal Security Service (ISS) is more cautious. The agency has not publicly released its risk assessment.

"Estonia is a cooperation partner among European countries and shares in the burden, but in doing so, we cannot put the security of the Estonian state at risk. Renting out prison space may involve security risks, primarily related to Islamic extremism and internationally organized crime," said ISS spokesperson Marta Tuul.

She said housing Swedish inmates could lead to risks of radicalization or conflicts with fellow prisoners.

"We also see a risk that foreign inmates may begin to receive visits from individuals who have connections to extremism or international organized crime," Tuul added.

"There have been terrorist attacks in Europe that occurred after release from prison, and violent acts showing signs of extremism have also taken place inside prisons," the spokeswoman said.

"In our view, prisoners with links to terrorism and extremism must not be brought to Estonia. The state must also account for the need to strengthen other services, such as legal, medical, and interpretation services," she told ERR.

On Friday, the head of the prison service Rait Kuuse told the newspaper Postimees that Estonia will not accept prisoners convicted of terrorism-related offenses or those considered likely to continue criminal activity in prison.

A press release from the Ministry of Justice said only "low-risk" criminals would be sent to Estonia. Officials have said they will also be housed separately from Estonia's inmates.

Tartu Prison, established in 2000, is a cell-type facility with a capacity of 933 inmates. Currently, 300 prisoners are incarcerated at the jail.

In 2023, the number of inmates in Estonia dropped below 2,000 for the first time and has been decreasing by about 100 people each year. Meanwhile, the Swedish government aims to impose tougher and longer sentences, making it unlikely that the number of prisoners there will decline in the near future.

Estonian inmates must not suffer

The Office of the Chancellor of Justice has identified three primary concerns.

"The situation of Estonian prisoners must not worsen because of the arrival of foreign inmates," said Indrek-Ivar Määrits, head of the inspection visits department at the Office of the Chancellor of Justice.

"Secondly, those foreign inmates themselves must be treated according to Estonian law and international requirements. And thirdly, in the broadest sense, Estonia's internal security must not be put at risk, not only from threats these individuals may pose to themselves, but also from risks that could emerge as part of the entire process," he told Friday's "Aktuaalne kaamera."

A shortage of prison staff is another concern. Officers with higher qualifications and salaries would largely have to be recruited from police resources, and the agency is already struggling to maintain its staffing levels.

Background checks

The police are also concerned about criminals' background checks. The draft agreement states inmates with links to organized crime should be excluded from transfers, but this may not always be possible.

"When we're talking about criminals from third countries who, for example, commit crimes in Sweden and are incarcerated there, there may not be a solid information base about them in any European country," said Roger Kumm, head of the prevention and criminal proceedings bureau at the Police and Border Guard Board (PPA).

"In other words, the available information may not reflect who these individuals really are or what risks they carry. Being convicted of a minor offense doesn't necessarily mean a person lacks broader criminal ties. Unfortunately, it's not possible to foresee all risks," he told the show.

Family ties

The PPA also want Swedish prisoners to be allowed to meet with their family members only via video link.

"This would also help us mitigate other public order risks, such as criminal associates or family members relocating to Estonia, forming connections here with other criminals," Kumm added.

The agreement should also exclude the possibility of Swedish prisoners being released in Estonia after serving their sentence.

"If someone has spent a long time in prison, their family may have moved to Estonia for personal reasons and already settled here. Then, of course, there is always a chance that the released individual returns to Estonia from Sweden, and we are facing the same problem again," said Kumm.

"Emotionally charged" debate

But some former officials believe the debate has become emotionally charged. That includes former ISS and police chief Raivo Aeg and former Prime Minister Andrus Ansip.

Aeg said the discussions are reminiscent of the attitudes to building Tartu prison. He listed connections with the criminal underworld, visiting relatives and inmates wanting to stay in Estonia after being released, as talking points.

"But I'm not sure how strong that desire would be, since life in Sweden is better than in Estonia," Aeg added.

Ansip believes that renting out Tartu prison is not a bad idea and requires a meaningful discussion. 

"I'm bothered when people fearmonger, when they say that renting out prison space will damage Tartu's reputation and turn the city into a new Guantanamo," he told ERR.

The former prime minister said the Estonian people's sense of security must also be taken seriously and must not be compromised.

He also said he has followed prison issues closely for two decades.

"I've looked into the impact that renting prison space to foreigners has had in the Netherlands. I have a clear understanding that there has not been any negative impact on those cities, for example, crime has not increased," Ansip said.

"However, it has been found that for inmates sent to serve their sentence in another country, reintegration into society is more difficult. On the other hand, the prisoners housed in those facilities were often individuals who were going to be deported from Belgium or Norway after serving their sentence anyway, so those countries were not particularly interested in reintegrating them. So there are both pros and cons," he outlined.

This article was updated to add comments from Indrek-Ivar Määrits, Roger Kumm, Raivo Aeg and Andrus Ansip.

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