"If Russia had the reserves for a major summer offensive, they would have used them immediately. Their problem is the lack of control over their low-altitude airspace, which is dominated by Ukrainian drones. That said, Russia is still capable of inflicting losses on Ukraine, which is why Ukraine prefers to remain on the defensive," security expert Rainer Saks said.

Because of this, Saks believes the current situation will persist throughout the summer, with strategic capabilities to destroy enemy assets behind the front lines playing a decisive role.

"On paper, Russia has the advantage. They have more glide bombs and missiles. As for drones, it's hard to compare. But if Ukraine manages to complete its missile program — something they've talked about frequently in the media — the balance could begin to shift. In summary, Russia has not been able to convert its advantages into military success."

As a result, the war will continue to drag on along the front lines, although larger airstrikes may occur from time to time on either side. Unfortunately, this will mean more loss of life, Saks noted.

Speaking about the possibility of a ceasefire, the expert said that Russia's leadership currently believes it can extract more from the West than just an agreement based on the current line of contact.

"Unfortunately, the West has failed for years to build the kind of pressure on Russia that would force it to the negotiating table. I don't mean media pressure. There has been no determined action to apply real pressure. That would require military buildup and swift support for Ukraine, along with sanctions against Russia. The West has been hesitant, and that gives Russia room to maneuver."

Regarding Russia's retaliatory strike on Ukraine in response to the June 1 attacks on its strategic air force, Saks said it's still too early to say anything definitive.

"The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that a retaliatory strike had taken place. If so, it wasn't very extensive. In a couple of weeks, we'll be able to look back and see whether it really happened."

However, Saks emphasized that since Ukraine's strike, Russia has been unable to carry out combined missile and drone attacks on the same scale as before.

"The question is how many missiles and drones Russia can launch. I don't doubt that they can send out drones in large numbers. But when it comes to missiles, it's a different story — they're no longer able to launch as many as before."

A large portion of the missiles are launched from strategic bombers, which Ukraine targeted in its long-planned surprise attack.

"Although Russia wants to downplay the scale of the damage caused by Ukraine, they've barely managed to get their strategic bombers in the air since the strike. The maximum number has been six, whereas before it was 15, 18 and even over 20 on one occasion."

Saks also pointed out that while Ukraine targets military facilities and related infrastructure in Russia, Russia continues to bomb civilian infrastructure and populations in Ukraine.

"The Russian leadership is convinced this will break the Ukrainian people's will to resist, which of course is not true. On the other hand, they're doing it to generate greater media coverage and create the impression that they have the initiative in the war. Ukraine, for its part, does not target civilian areas in cities as a matter of principle."

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