How accurate were the local election forecasts for Tallinn?

Counting votes on election night, October 17 2021.
Counting votes on election night, October 17 2021. Source: Priit Mürk/ERR

The Center Party actually did better at Sunday's local government elections in Tallinn than had been predicted, even as the party lost its absolute majority, for the first time in a decade. Center also did better than it had at the 2019 Riigikogu elections.

On the whole, it can be said that none of the survey companies predicted the results perfectly accurately. Turu-uuringute and Norstat were at least right about the order of party support sizes.

The companies predicted the Center Party a rate of 39-42 percent support in Tallinn, whereas it was actually 45 percent in the end.

The Reform Party was predicted to a vote percentage of 15-21 percent; in reality, it was 18 percent and so in this case the polls were more accurate.

The Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) fared worse than predicted, at 9.5 percent of the vote, compared with an 11-15-percent forecast.

Eesti 200 also polled at 9.5 percent in Tallinn, within its predicted range of 8-14 percent.

The Social Democratic Party (SDE) was forecast at 6-11 percent and again this came true, with its 7.5 percent rate, while Isamaa did slightly better at 7 percent, than forecast (3-6.5 percent).

The Greens fell within their forecast range of 0.9 to 3 percent, with 2.2 percent of the vote.

The different companies conducted their polls at different times, while the intensity of campaigns was different as a result. Turu-uuringute's survey was conducted from September 6-15, Emor's from September 15-29 and Norstat from September 24 through to October 13.

The surveys were conducted on different premises. Turu-uuringute's poll was solely a party branding survey without any candidates listed in the options; Norstat gave full lists, while in Emor's survey, the respondents needed to indicate the district in which they were voting.


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Editor: Roberta Vaino

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