Russian forces engaged in the invasion of Ukraine are likely to face logistical headaches in the near future, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Colonel Mart Vendla says.
Col. Vendla said: "Logistically speaking, Russian Federation armed forces are facing interesting times. Maintaining such a large force in the field requires a great deal of logistical support. However, they are facing problems here. Wars are often won with the help of logistical support."
Russia is also transferring some of its forces southwards, in an effort to head off any potential Ukrainian counter-offensive, Col. Vendla added.
Nonetheless, no major developments have occurred in the past week and the main thrust remains in the direction of the Bakhmut-Siversk line, he added, at least over the next few days.
"For the next three to seven days, the focus will not change. Additional pressure will continue in the direction of Bahmut-Siversk," he said.
Significant recent events are the recent Ukrainian airstrike on the Saky airbase, in occupied Crimea, as well as a strike on an air base in Gomel, in Belarusian territory.
Of the former, Vendla said: "The attack has not led to any fundamental changes, although has inflicted hurt," putting the estimate at 10-12 planes destroyed on the ground.
The strike also: "Implies that e Russian Federation armed forces cannot be sure that they are impervious to Russian firepower, even in what they consider to be theie rear," he added.
As to the Gomel strike, Vendla said that: "There is no official information on the attack that took place near Gomel, in Belarus, as to what exactly was destroyed. This was an air base from which Russian forces have been operating. According to various sources, there have been losses in various types of equipment," said Vendla.
Vendla also pointed out the large losses of armor which the Russian military may struggle to replace, due to pre-war equipment having western and other foreign tech installed which is now sanctioned, and forcing the Russians to rely on taking out ageing military equipment from warehouses.
All told, Russian forces have lost more tanks than in the current inventory of the British and German armies combined, he added.
Russia is still building up a third army corps, he added, while three volunteer units are being recruited in the St. Petersburg area.
Editor: Andrew Whyte