Expert: Ukraine itself has not yet set concrete counter-offensive date

Rainer Saks.
Rainer Saks. Source: ERR

Ukraine has not set a date for its anticipated large-scale counter-offensive against Russian forces because work is being done on creating the prerequisites for a breakthrough.

This means opportunity needs to be used as and when it arises, and where there is a strong chance of success, security expert Rainer Saks says.

Speaking to Vikerradio's "Vikerhommik" show Friday morning, Saks said

He said: "The Ukrainian counter-offensive has in fact been ongoing for a long period of time, especially at the strategic level. This aspect of the offensive where we would expect to see prepared armored units liberating the occupied territories has not yet arrived."

At the same time, the prospects of a solid breakthrough remain bright and Ukrainian forces can create those prerequisites for success, Saks added.

"Currently, Ukraine has used its capabilities very minimally, in order to start breaking down Russian defensive lines in the South. Also the front-line has been already breached in one specific location, which proves it can be done," Saks said.

Ukraine is preparing actions which would demoralize the Russian army, in order to regain the occupied territories without suffering unduly heavy casualties. "They have been destroying Russia's electronic warfare equipment, communication lines, logistics, warehouses, command centers. There are major detonations behind the front line every day now," he went on.

Nonetheless it is in Ukraine's interest to refrain from provoking a new mobilization in Russia, Saks said.

Ukrainian morale is vastly superior to that on the Russian side, but they do not have an advantage when it comes to tech, Saks went on.

He said: "Ukraine's psychological pressure has affected Russia. Russia's goals have changed greatly and fundamentally during the course of the war, so conquest of Ukraine is no longer Moscow's goal."

"Ukraine is putting pressure on Russian soldiers, convincing them that the fight is hopeless, while on the other hand, demonstrating to the Russian leadership that this war is unwinnable," Saks added.

Russian missile attacks on Ukraine have become increasingly rare, too, which Saks put down to a desire to strike a balance with the airstrikes. "However, some of the missiles will make it through Ukraine's air defense, and this will certainly be a crushing blow to the Ukrainian leadership, but at the same time, Ukraine's will is unbroken. Moreover, these attacks have encouraged Ukraine's allies to support it even more."

Ukrainian air defenses are working at a satisfactory level, but are still far from perfect, Saks gave as his assessment.

"The most difficult thing is to work together the old Soviet systems and the new Western systems," said Saks. "The only type of weapon where Russia still has a clear advantage is the air force."

The Russian economy has suffered a lot as as result of the invasion, Saks went on, and is exacerbated by Ukraine's dogged resistance.

He said: "We can see this reflected in Russia's shortcomings in its war-waging abilities. Who would have thought that Ukraine would not last a year and be able to attack back?"

Russia has a capable circle of financial leaders, but nonetheless the budget deficit is growing, Saks added. The ordinary Russian people are also suffering and are leaving the country in droves, a situation which the regime cannot ignore forever, he said.


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Editor: Andrew Whyte

Source: 'Vikerhommik'

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